The £150,000 Ayr Gold Cup is the feature race on Saturday where Scot Jim Goldie will be seeking to train the first Scottish winner of the race since Roman Warrior twenty-five years ago. His charge, Hawkeyethenoo, has been installed as second favourite (at the time of writing) with sponsors William Hill at 8/1 for the 6 furlong dash. But it is the market leader Poet’s Place that looks the one to beat after David Barron’s 5yo gelding scored in the Ladbrokes Portland Handicap at Doncaster last weekend. Philip Makin looks all set to ride the easy-to-back 5/1 shot as the horse bids for his fifth win in just eight career runs, but will the American import deliver the goods once more?
The sprint, now the richest sprint handicap in Europe is certainly the highlight and the most anticipated event in the Scottish racing calendar. Open to thoroughbreds aged three years or older, the race in recent years has thrown up several large priced winners including the Clive Cox horse Jimmy Styles who won it twelve months ago at 14/1. The last favourite to win was in fact the David Barron trained Coastal Bluff in 1996 and he’ll be hoping Poet’s Place can emulate this success on Saturday especially if more rain arrives prior to post time. William Hill have already trimmed him into 5/1 from 11/2 but expect that price to ease up should the conditions suit.
But if we’re looking to oppose the favourite in this one several other interesting runners more than catch the eye; none more so than Definightly from the Roger Charlton yard. The 4yo ran a blinder at Goodwood on Saturday after making all under the stewardship of Jimmy Fortune, and if this gelding gets in with apprentice Adam Beschizza likely to take 5lb, he must merit consideration at 12/1. However, there are doubts as to whether Definightly will make the cut and Charlton has said the horse needs 10 to come out after confirmation stage. Another potentially well treated runner in the field is David Nicholls’ Victoire De Lyphar who has been in the winners enclosure at 22/1 and 9/1 in two of his last three runs, and looks sure to go well at another healthy price. The Irish 3yo is now available at 9/1 which looks a steal if being nailed close home at Goodwood last time is forgiven.
If Definightly fails to make the handicap cut, another horse from the Charlton stable must enter calculations. Genki, laid down his claim for the valuable prize by finishing third to Markab in the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock last time after disappointing in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood prior. The ground was rumoured to be the problem that day and all connections will be praying the Ayr ground is good or good to firm for the 6yo to run his race. Genki is officially rated at 103 for the dash and looks well in on his return to handicapping so might be worth an each way punt at 11/1 (William Hill).
Jonathan Woodgate has already tasted the agony of not making Spurs’ 25-man squad for the new season because of injury, and the ex-Real Madrid star will be hoping his horse Jonny Mudball (12/1) can give him something to cheer about at Ayr. The Tom Dascombe trained colt is owned by the footballer’s family and has ran creditably over six furlongs notching up a win at Newcastle towards the back end of July, but can he rediscover this winning form in Scotland? Well, he’ll have to reverse the placings with another runner in the field, Evens and Odds. It was the latter who had the bragging rights in the Stewards Cup after being tipped by Tom Segal (Pricewise) from the racing post in the morning, and he could again get in the money at 16/1.
While all the runners and riders are yet to be confirmed for the Ayr Gold Cup, it is worth noting that the last three winners of this race have been drawn in high numbers on the stands’ side. This may have a significant bearing on your selection should the Saturday’s race continue this trend. Favourite backers must ebb on the side of caution though before lumping on Poet’s Place as this tough sprint has a habit of throwing up unfancied outsiders!!
By Mikey Mumford
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The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is Saturday’s feature at Ascot with Richard Hannon’s top miler Canford Cliffs and his 2,000 guineas conqueror Makfi vying for favouritism at the head of the market. But it’s the Hannon colt that will surely go off favourite after his impressive hat-trick in the St James’ Palace Stakes, the Irish 2,000 guineas and the Sussex Stakes last time out. Canford Cliffs is currently best priced 6/4 with Coral with Makfi being chalked up at 9/4 with Totesport.
A hot field of runners look set to go to post for this Group One race over a mile but it seems it is wonderhorse Canford Cliffs they must all topple. This despite Aidan O’Brien’s runners dominating the fourteen strong field, with the pick of his entries being last years winner Rip Van Winkle. The 4yo colt claimed the International Stakes at York in August but that form has since been franked after ‘Rip’ was beaten five and-a-half lengths by stable mate Cape Blanco at Leopardstown latest. For that reason, the Ballydoyle trained horse is pretty solid in the betting at 4/1 with Coral but he must rediscover his York form if he’s to come close to the two market leaders.
Poet’s Voice will run for the Godolphin yard on Saturday and is another who may well have place claims. Saeed Bin Suroor’s runner won the Group 2 celebration mile at Goodwood in his last outing beating odds on favourite Main Aim by four-and-a-half lengths. However, only four went to post that day and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes will provide much sterner competition. A good consistent run though could be on the cards if the horse settles,as he has a tendency to pull hard in the early stages. Paddy Power bet 14/1 for the 3yo colt, but definitely worth an each way squeak.
Another Aidan O’Brien runner is the unpredictable Steinbeck, and although he’s racked up two wins from his last two, the worry is Canford Cliffs has had the measure of him on two occasions before. The Irish raider is a 20/1 shot (Bet365) but hasn’t reached the heights Ballydoyle expected of him and is probably best just watched in the race. Rio De La Plata represents another chance for Godolphin at 25/1 (Victor Chandler) but he could be left in the shadow of the other runner in Godolphin blue, Poet’s Voice. Despite notching victory in the Strensall Stakes at York last month, he’s one of the more exposed horses in the line-up and will do well to place in this opposition. Other notable outsiders making the trip to Ascot include Pat Eddery’s Hearts of Fire (25/1) and Sheikh Hamdan’s Awzaan (33/1) but both are expected to play minor roles. Nevertheless, any money for the pair would be significant and worth a market inspection in the build up to race time.
So there we have it, the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes looks set to be a two-horse race between Canford Cliffs and Makfi, but who will take the honours? Currently the score stands at one-all between the cross channel rivals, with Makfi having the better of the 2,000 guineas before Canford drew level in the St James’ Palace Stakes at Ascot. Neither can afford to flop this time around in this mouth-watering clash. The French trained Makfi has already seen off Group 1 ace Goldikova in the Prix Jacques Le Marois putting behind him his Royal Ascot run. Trainer Mikel Delzangles is confident of taking the 250,000 prize money and has no concerns over the ground. With Christophe Soumillon on board, who has ridden him before, he could well be the big gamble on Saturday afternoon. Canford Cliffs will take all the beating but if there is a fly in his ointment, Makfi is the one most likely to take advantage of it.
By Mikey Mumford
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Newmarket awaits the Qipco 2,000 Guineas on Saturday where red-hot favourite Frankel is the horse everybody wants to be on. Henry Cecil’s 3-year-old was said to have needed the run in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury a fortnight ago but still breezed by the opposition that day. He is set to face a field of 13 runners after the withdrawals of Dubai Prince and Dream Ahead last week. Punters though might be swayed to delve into the betting market ‘without Frankel’ as Paddy Power are currently offers the best odds at 4/7. The Khalid Abdulla owned colt will be the shortest priced favourite for the event since 1971 as he bids to land the spoils in the first of five British classics to be run this year.
Tom Queally takes the ride on Frankel and he could well take this race from the front. In the Greenham Stakes last time, it was clear his stablemate Picture Editor could not go hard enough for Frankel and Queally may have to adopt similar tactics here and force the issue. If he is to lose his unbeaten tag at the sixth time of asking, next in the betting is another unbeaten runner- Jessica Harrington’s Pathfork at 5/1. This American-bred colt has won on his first three starts at the Curragh in Ireland and just held off Casamento last time out. Pathfork is unraced beyond seven furlongs but connections seem to think he will be competitive on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket.
Roderic O’Connor comes next in the market Aidan O’Brien at around the 7/1 mark. He finished two-and-quarter lengths behind Frankel in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket last October and had stablemate Master of Hounds behind in a valuable race at the Curragh on his penultimate start. Ryan Moore replaces Johnny Murtagh in the saddle and the slight step up in trip should suit this horse and should be taken seriously at 4/1 in the ‘without Frankel’ market. Godolphin’s main hope this year l;ies with the aforementioned Casamento – the winner of the Racing Post trophy at Doncaster on his last run for trainer Michael Halford. However, Sheikh Mohammed has voiced his concern at the trip and thinks a mile and half will suit but he tackles the 2000 Guineas instead of tilting towards an assault in the Derby. Frankie Dettori will be in the saddle once more and he had Native Khan and Dubawi Gold trailing in his wake last time so a big run can be expected of the 13/2 shot.
Few will want to miss the first ‘Classic’ of 2011 but Kieren Fallon might be one of those select couple that will not be tuning in too embrace the action after missing his ride on Native Khan. Fallon picked up a ban for not riding out to the winning line and after having his suspension shortened on appeal, the Newmarket meeting came too soon for the former champion Jockey. Instead Olivier Peslier will do the steering on the Ed Dunlop trained Native Khan; who is interesting in the sense that he won over course and distance just over a fortnight ago. The grey held off Richard Hannon’s Libranno to claim victory in the Craven Stakes and had a successful campaign as 2-year-old last year. The only worry would be that Casamento had his measure at Doncaster.
William Haggas’ runner Fury is a 6/1 shot and is unbeaten on his two career starts. He steps up to a mile on Saturday and Johnny Murtagh’s mount could spring a surprise should he get the trip.
Of the other runners at a big price, Dubawi Gold (33/1) is a useful type and has won both starts back this term on the polytrack but Richard Hannon’s colt steps up markedly in class. Rerouted (66/1) for the Barry Hills yard will don the same colours as Frankel and finished a creditable second behind Pausanias in a listed event last time. He could be one to take the field along at a good early clip and act as a pacemaker for Frankel’s surge.
By Mikey Mumford
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The Vodafone Oaks
Alexandra and Galatee are challenging to be favourite for the Vodafone Oaks on Friday. Galatee is unbeaten on all three of her previous runs this season and is available at best odds 7/2 with Betfred. Totesport and Stan James have Alexandra as slight favourite at best odds 3/1.
The Vodafone Derby
The Andre Fabre colt Visindar leads the betting for the Vodafone Derby at Epsom this weekend. Sporting Bet and Betfred offer best odds 2/1, with William Hills going as short as 6/4. Visindar would be the first French horse in 30 years to win the Derby .
Horatio Nelson is second favourite, available at best odds 9/2 with Totesport. Septimus is third favourite available at a stand out price of 13/2.
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The Triumph Hurdle is the opening race of the final day of the Cheltenham Festival, a Grade 1 race run by 4 year olds over 2 miles 1 furlong. Traditionally the Triumph Hurdle has been a tricky race to find a winner, but the reduced field size in recent years has done punters a big favor.
Triumph Hurdle Tip – Zaynar 9/2 – Free £25 bet at Tote Sport
Zaynar is joint favourite for this race, and deservedly so after two solid performances at Ascot and Kempton. Trainer Nicky Henderson is also in form, and posesses the key stat of a win last time out. This is particualry important as 12 of the last 14 winners of this race all have that stat. Favourites also have a good record in this race the last 3 winners all being odds 6/1 or shorter. Bet now at tote Sport for the best odds and £25 free bet
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The final big race of the flat season and this prize often goes to a double figure priced runner after many have had a long hard season.
The hot favourite for the race since declarations has been Pippa Greene who has won all of his three starts to date. Had this race been on soft ground he would have been a confident selection but this will be the first time he has faced a surface this firm and in his last race was declared on the basis that there was soft ground. At a price of 6/1 with Betfred he is passed over but should be looked out for next season.
A horse that has been backed all week has been the Richard Hannon trained Malt or Mash. He has improved with every run this season and has contested some very strong races giving the form a rock solid look. The trainer has warned that he is not guaranteed to run though over ground concerns. He has already won on good to firm but connections don’t want to risk their talented horse on too firm a ground. A late call will be made but your stake will be refunded if he doesn’t run so have a large bet each with Bet365 at 7/1 and if he takes his place it is almost impossible to see him being unplaced.
If Malt or Mash is withdrawn there are two horses with close form to him. On his latest win at HQ Sanbuch was just behind with Bandama in third. Sanbuch is a quirky character who has to come from way back so backing to win in a twenty three runner race isn’t the best proposition at 10/1 with Blue Square . A better bet is probably Bandama at twice those odds with Bet365. This consistent sort looks well capable of running a place.
Another who looks a tad overpriced is the Godolphin top weight New Guinea . This prominent runner will enjoy the low draw in stall three and although he has no secrets from the handicapper he is a very good horse. Stan James are 16/1 and this is another who looks nailed on for a good run at a great price.
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The Cambridgeshire Handicap is the feature race on the final day of Newmarket’s three-day Cambridgeshire meeting. And although the list of entries has yet to be finalised, of the seventy-nine remaining following the confirmation stage, Nationalism is the early ante-post favourite. The John Gosden trained 3yo colt won by three lengths on his handicap debut at Goodwood at the start of September and connections are confident about his chances on Saturday, albeit under a penalty. In his four career starts, Nationalism has recorded two wins and race sponsors Totesport have him chalked him up at 4/1. Gosden is bidding to win the £160,000 prize for the third time in the last four years and must stand a great chance saddling the colt in this race over a mile-and-a-furlong.
Of the large field expected to go to post, Luca Cumani is hoping to enter the progressive Start Right. Under Kieren Fallon, the 3yo gelding won the Tatler Summer Season Stakes Handicap towards the back end of July. However, Kieren was unable to justify the horses favouritism at the Curragh last time out despite being sent off the 5/2 market leader. Instead, Start Right was well held in midfield before finishing strongly in the final furlong to take fourth, but given a clearer run in the Cambridgeshire he could be a major player. SkyBet are offering 10/1 and at the very least he must be worth an each-way squeak.
Ransom Note is an interesting runner for the Barry Hills yard after his victory in the Addleshaw Goddard Handicap at York in mid August. That race was over a mile and the extra furlong should be no problem with son Michael Hills expected to take the ride once more. The 3yo colt has predominantly raced and won over seven furlongs and a mile but is sure to be there or thereabouts come the final furlong marker. He is 12/1 (Betfred) to follow up his win last time and hand Barry Hills his second Cambridgeshire win two decades after Risen Moon’s 1990 Newmarket success.
Gerard Butler is another trainer gunning for Cambridgeshire Gold after scooping the first leg of the autumn double (Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch) in 2002 with Beauchamp Pilot. Elliptical represents Butler this year despite being collared by Forte Dei Marmi at Newbury recently. The American import will be glad Cumani will not saddle Forte Dei Marmi, who has beaten him on no fewer than three occasions, for the last big handicap of the year. Therefore Elliptical could now get his head in front and is sure to run well at 16/1 (Totesport).
Of the other potentially well fancied handicapped horses, Absinthe from the Walter Swinburn stable makes some appeal. The 4yo hat-trick seeking gelding is sure to be ridden by Adam Kirkby, however the horse did scope dirty after exercise in early September. Connections may not be overly concerned but it may be best to ebb on the side of caution before backing Absinthe at 12/1 (Bet365). Shrewd Irish trainer Tony Martin could saddle Pires (16/1 SkyBet), the 6yo will be one of the most experiences runners in the field but has done much of his racing over further distances. He may have had one chance to many to land a big handicap and is well exposed.
Proponent (20/1 Coral), Sarrsar (16/1 Bet365) and Capponi (14/1 Bet365) are other fearful contenders, the latter representing the in-form Mark Johnston. The 3yo colt has won four of his career starts, two of those on ground described as good to firm, and has had the beating of Ransom Note once before. The last two runnings of this race have thrown up 25/1 and 16/1 winners respectively and Capponi stands a real chance of going in at a large price.
A great race is sure to unfold on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile on Saturday, but who will take the first leg of the “Autumn Double”?
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The big handicap on Saturday falls on Champions Day at Newmarket races with this year’s Totesport Cesarewitch seemingly very difficult to call. The Cesarewitch is a real test of stamina over 2 miles 2 furlongs and there promises to be some interesting betting opportunities. The uphill final furlong could catch several of these runners out, so it is important the horse not only stays the distance, but stays it well. Mostly ran in a straight line with just one right-handed turn, the latter of the race is run on the Rowley mile and its Dermot Weld’s Universal Truth that heads the market at 13/2 with race sponsors Totesport.
The Irish raider is yet to run outside Ireland but has racked up an impressive 50% strike rate in his ten career starts. The 5yo gelding went off favourite at Galway last time but it was far from plain sailing pipping Drumfire by just half a length. However, that was at a reduced 2m and Universal Truth shapes as though the extra 2 furlongs will suit. Testing conditions shouldn’t be a problem either, but the question remains as to whether his stamina will hold-out?
Red Cadeaux is next in the betting at 10/1 (Totesport) and has as good a chance as any in this large field. Ed Dunlop’s 4yo is top on timeform ratings and finished a good second behind Theola in the trial of this race over course and distance last time. The gelding is well handicapped, seems to stay well enough and looks a good bet to go close. Eoin Griffin’s Admiral Barry can be found at a similar price (10/1 Totesport) but has a bit to prove at present. Another horse that has done all of it’s racing in Ireland, he tackles this distance for the first time and this will be a real test of his credentials. Despite winning three times in since his introduction to racing in 2007, he just seems a little vulnerable at that price and there may be better value to be had further up the market.
Ollie Pears sends the interesting My Arch back to Newmarket where he won last time out. The 8yo is one of the more exposed horses that will go to post but represents great each value at 11/1 with Totesport. Kieren Fallon delivered him at just the right time in his last run getting home by a neck and with course experience to his name, it would be foolish to discount him from calculations. Bergo’s another that has drifted in the ante-post market recently, he was as short as 12/1 earlier this week but is now available at 20/1 with most firms. The German import is a progressive sort that has racked up seven wins from fourteen career starts and was beaten by a good horse in Drunken Sailor last time. He must be worth an each-way shout at the very least despite this concerning drift.
Other notable horses with proven stamina include the Simon Pearce trained Dayia (20/1) and Kayf Aramis (33/1) who also falls into that proven stayer category. Whatever happens, it promises to be a difficult race to call so a market inspection prior to placing any bets could prove significant. After the favourite last year Darley Sun was sent off at 9/2 and won, it seems this year the winner will almost certainly return at a larger price. But who will take the £160,000 purse? Get a free £25 bet when you open an account with Stan James this weekend
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The Supreme Novices Hurdle is the first race of the 2009 Cheltenham Festival, and looks set to be a cracking Grade 1 race featuring the likes of Cousin Vinny and Torphichen.
Supreme Novices Hurdle Tip – Cousin Vinny 11/4 – Free £25 bet at Blue Square
Cousin Vinny was an outstanding performer last season, and was dominating his last performance at Leopardstown until he fell at the last. Favourites also have a good record in this race with 3 winners in the last 8 years. Bet now at Blue Square for the best odds and £25 free bet
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The oldest of Britain’s five classics and the last to be run in the horse racing calendar year takes place at Doncaster on Saturday. The St. Leger Stakes run over a mile and six furlongs sees last months Great Voltigeur winner Rewilding head the sixteen entries. The 13/8 favourite with race sponsors Ladbrokes will be ridden by Frankie Dettori and the Godolphin yard who are bidding for their sixth success in this race will be confident of a big run. Mahmood Al Zarooni who trains the 3yo colt is hopeful of emulating stable trainer Saeed Bin Suroor’s victory with 14/1 shot Mastery twelve months ago and his Rewilding looks very much the one to beat here.
Doncaster’s fast galloping track will prove the real thoroughbred test as they swing left towards home and the emphasis with the Leger is therefore on the stamina side. And this could fall into the hands of Snow Fairy who enhanced her claims for the classic with a fine display in the Ebor at York recently going down only by three lengths to Henry Cecil’s classy Midday. If conditions are in her favour the filly from Ed Dunlop’s stable could be a shrewd contender at 6/1 (William Hill) to add to her success in the Epsom Oaks.
Another horse looking to reverse the result of the Great Voltigeur Stakes is the Ballydoyle trained Midas Touch. Aidan O’Brien’s colt was headed approaching the final furlong by Rewilding but cannot be ruled out this time around. In his six career starts he has two Group 1 seconds but seems reluctant to get his head in front, so could the St.Leger finally bring around a change in his fortunes?
Midas Touch is currently trading at 7/1 with Ladbrokes along with another eye-catching runner in Arctic Cosmos. William Buick rides for the in form John Gosden aiming for his first classic win less than four years after riding his first ever winner. The 3yo American import ran a little green and didn’t handle the Glorious Goodwood track last time but still ran a great Leger trial. And Buick is confident his mount will relish the extra two furlongs from the mile-and-a-half he has been going saying: “He’ll be a better horse for that extra distance, he’s been crying out for that.” And although unproven at the trip, how fitting would it be for Britain’s oldest classic to fall to the youngest jockey in the race?
No other trainer has a better chance than Aidan O’Brien in the Labrokes St.leger judging by his potential six entries. Joshua Tree is one of those in with a real chance of springing a surprise at a creditable price. The Irish raider currently trading at 10/1 (Totesport) showed little in the way of rustiness in the Voltigeur after almost twelve months away from the track. He stayed on really well to finish third behind Rewilding and Midas Touch and there could well be further improvement to come from that showing. O’Brien could also supplement Cape Blanco for the race at a £45,000 cost before Monday’s deadline after he blitzed a smart field including Juddmonte International Stakes winner Rip Van Winkle at Leopardstown on Saturday.
Best of the rest in the field ready to take to the Town Moor turf might well by James Given’s Dandino. This progressive colt has all the credentials required to win a race of this kind; class, stamina and the ability to accelerate to name but a few and Paul Mulrennan takes the ride on the not to be discarded 8/1 (Boylesports) shot. But there are those punters that feel the race is Rewilding’s to lose. However, hold that thought because outstanding favourites have a mixed record in years gone by. In fact, the last favourite to win was Sixites Icon in 2006 but all three market leaders have been beaten since then. This includes Frankie’s ride last year on Kite Wood who could only finish second to the 14/1 Mastery. And with this still fresh in the mind, could another big priced horse be the first home on Saturday leaving a trail of more fancied runners in its wake?
By Mikey Mumford
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