The Cheltenham Festival would lose its tag as the most prestigious meeting in the National Hunt calendar if it wasn’t for the shocks and upsets that test the wallet strings of so many punters. Time and time again winners, some as large as 100/1, have defied their odds to put on a Cheltenham masterclass and arrive first home. So let’s take a trip down memory lane and take a look at those unexpected few that have landed major honours at major prices over the last decade.
Handicap shocks
Twelve months ago it was the Champion Bumper that threw up the largest price winner of the 2010 Cheltenham Festival. Colin Tizzard’s Cue Card romped home by eight lengths to defy odds of 40/1 and now looks a future star in the making. When winners go in at such large prices, some would class it as a one-off but with Cue Card it seems the festival have unearthed a real gem. It will be interesting to see which race he is entered for in March but is certain to go off at single figure odds.
It is usually handicap races that throw up the most unexpected winners. With all horses weighted accordingly and by the letter of the law, all should hold an even chance of winning a handicap contest. And this is partly the reason why we witness horses so weak in the market causing tremendous upsets on the largest of stages. The largest price winner of the last ten years was David Elsworth’s Mister McGoldrick that won the Racing Post Plate Handicap Chase at 66/1 in 2008. He stormed home by a whopping thirteen lengths and put punters firmly in their place in the process.
Shocks in the championship races
If we take a look at the biggest shocks in the four major championship races, probably the biggest upset came in the 2004 Champion Hurdle. The Dessie Hughes trained Hardy Eustace defied odds of 33/1 to land the spoils in the feature on day one. In fact 2004 had its fair share of upsets and on day three the Kim Muir and Pertemps Handicap Hurdle were won by 40/1 and 50/1 shots respectively. The Gold Cup has predominately been landed by those at short prices and War of Attrition was the largest price victor at 15/2 in 2006 since the turn of the millennium. However the 1990 Gold Cup arguably provided the greatest Cheltenham festival shock ever when Norton’s Coin ridden by Graham McCourt arrived first home at an unprecedented 100/1. And what a stage to deliver it! Since, there have been no triple price winners but could that change in 2011?
The handicaps are most likely to seek out large price winners such is their unpredictability. Grade races generally go to those who take up a kind position in the market but anything can happen in a handicap, literally anything! So if one is fancying a punt on a friendless horse in the market, try your hand at one in a handicap where stranger things have happened!
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Captain Chris displayed Arkle-winning credentials for Phillip Hobbs and Richard Johnson in this same race last year, and Sprinter Sacre looks to hold all the aces this time around. After failing to get up the Cheltenham hill in the Supreme Novices’ a year ago, Nicky Henderson’s stellar performer has made the transition to chasing look easy, such was the nature of his three victories over the larger obstacles this season. Perhaps one of the bankers across the four days, Sprinter Sacre’s main danger may well come from Al Ferof who got the better of him in the aforementioned Supreme Novices’ twelve months ago. Peddlers, Cue Card and Menorah could also make the frame should they tilt towards the Arkle.
Finian’s Rainbow has only beaten seven horses home all season but that hasn’t’ stopped him waiting all three races. They are likely to go a breakneck pace here and his jumping will come under plenty of scrutiny, he may not be quite up to that test. If there is a horse capable of running a big race at big odds it’s Mikael D’Hauguenet who won at last year’s Festival, it looked as though he has a big future but things haven’t dropped into place this season, he remains capable of much better.
This is another race for novice chasers on the old course at Cheltenham; where they will swing left-handed once more before descending towards home. Named after one of it’s most famous competitors, Arkle, the race will find out those horses who lack fluency over the obstacles. The two-mile distance is the minimum trip at the festival but emphasis is very much on speed and good jumping. Nicky Henderson certainly knows how to ready a horse for this race, the shrewd trainer has won it three times but his most recent win was over a decade ago in 2000. Paul Nicholls and Alan King also have good records over the years in this race any horse from these top stables must be taken seriously in the betting.
What happened last year?
Sizing Europe pipped Somersby by ¾ of a length to take the corresponding race at last years festival and trends suggests horses that won last time out perform well in this one. Henry de Bromhead’s Sizing Europe had won its four previous starts and Somersby its last two, and it would be no surprise to see this year’s winner have form already in the book. As the new jumps season gets underway, it will be interesting to see how potential runners for this race fare in their trial runs. Paul Nicholls’ Celestial Halo who has fallen in his last two runs with Ruby Walsh aboard has been mooted as a possible entrant but the ante-post is relatively low key at this very early stage.
The 2011 Arkle promises to be an eye-catching affair and all entries will be looking to end their respective jumping seasons on a high. Jump jockeys will also be aiming to cram in the winners at the festival and it wouldn’t be jump racing without Tony McCoy riding a boat load of winners. The 15-times Champion jockey has tasted Arkle success three times before and his mount will sure come in for money if the McCoy factor can loom large.
Victor Chandler
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A relatively new race on the Cheltenham festival card so recent trends as expected are difficult to go by. Nevertheless, COURT IN MOTION absolutely bolted up in a competitive Warwick handicap two starts ago and has a leading chance on that evidence. Bu t it is arguable that he didn’t beat much that day and Gagewell Flyer has an excellent chance of going in as a 7-year-old – who incidentally have a 50% strike rate in this event. Kilcrea Kim, Back in Focus and Join Together can also enter the fray on their recent good form. Get a free £25 bet with William Hill.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle odds
This race is ideal for the staying novice hurdles that are probably just below par for the Ladbrokes World hurdle but are certainly adept at this lesser level. Only recently has this race held Grade 1 status so a lot of quality will go to post for this eagerly anticipated contest. It has grown in stature and prestige amongst Cheltenham racing enthusiasts since its launch and it is a real eye-opener to some of the top staying novice hurdlers. Previous winners include Weapons Amnesty who won this in 2009 and twelve months later went on to blitz the RSA Chase by seven lengths. Davy Russell’s mount went in at odds of 10/1 which suggests there is value to be had in this field for those very shrewd betting folk.
Trial paths
Despite it being a relatively new race on the card, certain trends have become evident. Seven year old horses have a 50% strike rate in the race and both Robert Thornton and AP McCoy have won it on two occasions. McCoy rode his two winners for JonJo O’Neill and the second of those Wichita Lineman has been a real success story since his victory in 2007. He was sent to contest the Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival trials in January before scoring in the Albert Bartlett just two months later. So this race is worth keeping an eye on with possible entrants choosing to go down this route. Wichita Lineman subsequently went on to find the Ladbrokes World Hurdle too much but did find success in the 2009 running of the William Hill Handicap Chase. Therefore, the 2011 race winner might just go on to become to claim a few more festival accolades.
Berties Dream for Paul Gilligan yard tasted success in this last year at a massive 33/1. But prior to that, this race had not seen any winner go in higher than 9/1. So despite this anomaly, the betting could guide for the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle although the trip could catch a few of these out. It is important that when the runners are declared that you seek out horses that are proven over this trip and not only stay the trip, but stay it well. The long run-in could hamper the chances of some, so stamina is the key as they prepare to be greeted close home by that famous ‘Cheltenham Roar’!
Victor Chandler
Bet 365
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The Christie’s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup is run over 3 miles 2 furlongs and is a race that is traditionally won by shorter price horses who have the trait of winning last time out. The 2009 affair of the Foxhunter Chase looks set to be a tight race, with the likes of Cappa Bleu, Juveigneur and Amicelli all making plenty of appeal.
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Juveigneur is a former top class handicapper and has already finished as a runner up at the Cheltenham Festival. This experience should put him in great stead to go one better this time out at good odds. Bet now at Tote Sport for the best odds and £25 free bet
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After Frankel blew his rivals out of the water in the 2000 Guineas last week, attentions switch to preparations for the Epsom Derby and the Totesport.com Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield Park on Saturday. The race over a mile and three furlongs is open to 3-year-olds and the early market signs suggest there’s little between all seven runners. Richard Hannon’s Measuring Time could go off paper jolly although the Mark Johnston trained pair Hurricane Higgins and Dordogne should take up a prominent position in the betting ring.
A lot was expected of Measuring Time twelve months ago where he flourished as a 2-year-old winning his first two career starts over six and seven furlongs respectively. He then came up against Native Khan in the Solario Stakes at Sandown and only failed by half-a-length. The Hannon and Hughes combination found another too good in a listed event at Haydock next time and Measuring Time has failed to land a blow in 2011 with two second-place efforts. His inability to get his head in front might put off a few punters and this horse could be vulnerable should he be scrapping it out a furlong from home. Richard Hughes will again be in the saddle but 5/2 looks a little short for a horse who hasn’t won since his first two appearances on a racecourse.
Shrewd trainer Mark Johnston looks sure to play a big hand in this Derby Trial with the aforementioned Hurricane Higgins (4/1) probably his best hope. Stable jockey Joe Fanning opted for this lightly raced runner over Dordogne after his maiden victory in a Grade 5 event at Lingfield over 1m2f in January. Hurricane Higgins was a non-runner in the Classic Trial at Sandown last month so it will be interesting to see if connections already had one eye on this race. His chances are taken on trust though after only one career start. Dordogne (9/2) on the other hand will be ridden by Neil Callan in the Sheikh Hamdan colours although he will need to forget his last run in the Classic Trial where he hung badly and finished last of nine runners. If that run can be excused, Dordogne was a game winner at Newmarket just over a month ago and a similar effort would put him in the frame.
Marhaba Malyoon is an interesting runner for the David Simcock yard having won over slightly shorter at Bath last September in his only run to date. It’s unlikely he beat much apart from strong favourite El Mansour that day but he should stay the trip for William Buick and with scope for improvement, a big run can be expected at 6/1. Godolphin run American import Borug who finished second in a similar Derby Trial three weeks ago. Frankie Dettorii fresh from his 1000 guineas success aboard Blue Bunting will be hoping for a nice run and Saeed Bin Suroor’s runners are always high on the list. He is currently an 11/2 chance.
War is War and Laughing Jack complete the line-up and both colts are not without a chance in a wide open contest. Ed Dunlop transferred the latter from Michael Bell’s stable after his 5th in his racecourse bow at Newmarket last year and he repaid the faith shown to him by landing a competitive maiden at Windsor in April. War is War is another with little racecourse time but could enter the fray if recapturing his form as a 2-year-old. Both horses are 10/1 chances to scoop the £65,000 purse.
By Mikey Mumford
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The Coral Eclipse Stakes is a Group 1 flat horse race for thoroughbred horses aged three years old and up. It is run over a distance of 1 mile, 2 furlongs and 7 yards at the Sandown Park Racecourse in Surrey during early July.
It seen as a highly intriguing race, due to the fact that it is the first time that the established four and five year old horses take on the three year old newcomers who have performed well at the Classics. It is a hugely exciting race as it attracts some of the best flat racing thoroughbred horses in the world and it always a favourite for horse racing betting punters. Age does not appear to be a huge factor in determining the winner; since 1990, there have been six winners apiece from the three year old group, four year old group and five year old group.
With the 2009 Coral Eclipse Stakes just around the corner, expectations are already high due to fact it is expected to be a highly competitive field, and horse racing betting for this race appears a difficult proposition.
Sea the Stars, the winner of the 2,000 Derby and the Epsom Derby is currently favourite for the Coral Eclipse at best odds 5/6 with Blue Square. His record speaks for itself and the fact that he has won short and long distance races demonstrates that he has speed as well as stamina. Another factor in favor of Sea the Stars is that he was a late withdrawal for last week’s Irish Derby due to the soft ground. This should put him in perfect condition for the Coral Eclipse and it’s easy to see why he is an odds on favourite.
Rip Van Winkle, the three year old trained by Aiden O’ Brien certainly has the pedigree to prevail at the Coral Eclipse Stakes. He finished a respectable 4th at the recent Epsom Derby and it is thought that a mile and a quarter race like the Coral Eclipse Stakes should suit him more due to the speed in the female line of his pedigree. His odds of 4/1 with Paddy Power will be of interest to a lot of punters.
Amongst the older horses, the four year olds Cima de Triomphe and Conduit are expected to do well, as is the five year old Archipenko. It is important to remember that the line up is not yet confirmed for the Coral Eclipse Stakes, so odds could fluctuate wildly. It is therefore important to keep an eye on which horses are confirmed as runners.
When it comes to betting on the Coral Eclipse we would highly reccomen Bet 365. Not only do new customers get a free £100 on sign-up, but if you back the winner of the Coral Eclipse at odds of 4/1 greater then you will get a free bet to the same stakes on the next live on TV race.
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The totesport Chester Cup on 7th May is the biggest staying handicap of the Spring and as usual there promises to be a very strong line up for the 2008 renewal.
The current favourites are Highland Legacy and Double Banded. Highland Legacy is a stayer on the upgrade having won his sole start this season with plenty in hand and seemingly comfortable on any ground but better with cut he has a massive chance should he get a decent draw and luck in running, two crucial factors in the Chester Cup. Double Banded is another with form on varying ground types but he has done most of his winning over a trip half a mile short of the 2m2f the Chester Cup is run over and he might just be there to be shot at in the latter stages of the race.
Next in the market is Black Rock, who represents Michael Jarvis who has sent Anak Pekan out in this race to win twice in recent years. Black Rock is yet another improving four year old who has won both time he has raced over a mile and a half or more but that may prove to be his optimum distance and he is plenty high enough in the weights for a suspect stayer.
Other interesting contenders include Greenwich Meantime who won the race last year carrying 1lb less and Shipmaster, trained by jumps maestro Alan King, who is a tough sort who could go well if given a low draw.
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The totesport Cesarewitch handicap at Newmarket marks the end of the flat season in horse racing. Run over the Rowley mile course at Newmarket, the race is a real test of stamina due to the 2m 2 furlong trip for the 3 year olds and over taking part.
The 2008 Cesarewitch favourite is Askar Tau, who is the clear market leader at best odds of 4/1. This French 3 year old boasts an impressive record of 5 straight wins from her last 5 races, including a victory at Newmarket back in August. Furthermore, Askar Tau is proven over various conditions making it the obvious favourite.
However, favourites have a poor record in this race with just one favourite obliging in the last 10 years – that was Detroit City back in 2006. This stat will see many punters opt for longer odds horse in the Cesarewitch such as Mamlook or Wicked Daze who both have strong credentials 2007 winner Leg Spinner is available at 14/1, however it has proven a very difficult race to retain the crown for, meaning this talented horse should maybe only be backed each-way.
The crucial factor for betting on the Cesarewitch is the draw, as all winners over the last 10 years have been drawn in stall 17 or higher.
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On 6th and 7th of November 2009, we will be treated to the Annual Breeders Cup in North America, and before even one gate has been opened, history has already been made in the fact that Santa Anita Park, host of the Breeders Cup 2008, has again been picked as the venue, the first time a track has hosted the cup twice in consecutive years.
There are 14 races spread across the two day event, and with a $25.5 Million purse up for grabs, it is the Richest prize-money event in sport. The most important, and certainly prize-money richest race is The Breeders Cup Classic, with a $5 Million share to win, and it is the Classic that most betting men will be watching.
Bookmakers have ‘Rip Van Winkle’, trained by Aiden O’Brien, the favourite with SportingBet offering the best odds of 15/8. ‘Rip Van Winkle’, having won the Group 1 qualifying round seems also to be the customers favourite, but there are also some fantastic, if somewhat outside odds on other horses. ‘Zenyatta’ is the bookmakers next favourite for the Classic with odds of around 9/2, although BoyleSports is offering odds of 5/1, with an offer available on registration which means you get a free £20 bet once you deposit £20. Put that on ‘Zenyatta’ to finish each way, and you could make a nice profit.
Although a large difference in odds between ‘Rip Van Winkle’ and ‘Zenyatta’, the latter does have a good chance, with the horses ability being reflected by the fact that it is the bookmakers favourite for The Breeders Cup Ladies Classic. Again BoyleSports seems to have the best odds of 5/6, and if you want a sure thing, stick with ‘Zenyatta’ for the Ladies Classic, as the horses behind ‘Zenyatte’ such as ‘Careless Jewel’ and ‘Music Note’ have failed to deliver at points this year.
Rip Van Winkle 15/8 Sporting Bet
Zenyatta 5/1 Betfred
Summer Bird 7/1 Bet 365
Quality Road 12/1 Bet 365
12/1 Bar
When it comes to free bets for the Bredders Cup there is a lot of choice. We would reccomend the free bet offers at Bet 365 where customers get £100 in free bets, or Totesport, who also offer £100 in free bets for new customers.
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The forty-fourth running of the Sprint Cup takes centre stage at Haydock Park on Saturday. Aiden O’Brien’s talented colt Starspangledbanner heads the market at 7/4 with race sponsors Betfred after coming unstuck in his hat-trick bid at York last month. That race was at five furlongs and the team from Ballydoyle have upped the 4yo back to six and stand a real chance of landing the £275,000 prize. Sixteen runners will go to post including last years winner Regal Parade, who won the Prix Maurice de Gheest in his last run. Dandi Nicholls’ gelding is a top priced 7/2 (Totesport) second favourite to deliver a repeat performance but finished a disappointing 40/1 sixteenth behind Starspangledbanner at Royal Ascot in June.
Sir Michael Stoute’s representative in the race is Kingsgate Native the mount of returning former champion jockey Ryan Moore. He’s been disappointing in his last three runs but did win at this course in late May on ground described as good to firm. And although the going for Saturday is still unknown, it is hard to rule out Sir Michael’s charge, who is bidding to win the race for the third time, at an easy to back 10/1 (Paddy Power).
A horse that always gives his running is Robin Bastiman’s Borderlescott despite not making headway in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York last time out. Tried at six furlongs in just three of his forty-seven career starts, Neil Callan takes the ride and he’ll be hoping the classy 8yo’s stamina holds out having done most of his running back at five. At 10/1 (Betfred) Borderlescott can reward each way punters with all bookmakers paying a ¼ odds the first three.
The remainder of the field are10/1 bar but it would come as no surprise to see a large priced winner take the honours and there are a few interesting longshots that are well capable of getting in the money. Doncaster Rover (25/1 Ladbrokes) has won over this course and distance before and the booking of William Buick is interesting. The David Brown trained gelding bounced back to form at Newmarket five days ago (at the time of writing) and may come in for money before the off. Genki must also come into calculations for Roger Charlton and Steve Drowne if putting a line through his last run at Goodwood where he was outpaced and never in contention 2 out. He’s currently trading at 28/1 with SkyBet but will definitely go off much, much shorter than that early price. The final horse possibly worth an each way punt on is Markab who racked up consecutive wins earlier this season. However, his form has dipped a little of late and was more than eleven lengths behind winner Regal Parade last time out. Odds of 12/1 are available for Henry Candy’s runner and can run his race at a price for a horse who stays the trip well.
It’s difficult to look anywhere else than Aidan O’Brien’s warm favourite Starspangledbanner although there is value to be had in this field. Those with a high draw will no doubt have a slender advantage but this fast galloping track can suit a lot of these runners. The market could well guide once again in the Sprint cup and Colm O’Donoghue riding in the absence of Johnny Murtagh, will be out to reward those favourite backers at a hardening 7/4 now Paco Boy will not contest the race. Richard Hannon’s top miler bypassed the race in favour of Sunday’s Prix du Moulin at Longchamp in France but come 15:35 on Saturday all eyes will be on this exciting feature at Haydock Park.
There are lots of free bets available for the Betfred Sprint Cup. We would reccomend the free bet offers at Bet 365 where customers get £100 in free bets, or Totesport, who also offer £100 in free bets for new customers.
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