Tote Cesarewitch betting preview
The big handicap on Saturday falls on Champions Day at Newmarket races with this year’s Totesport Cesarewitch seemingly very difficult to call. The Cesarewitch is a real test of stamina over 2 miles 2 furlongs and there promises to be some interesting betting opportunities. The uphill final furlong could catch several of these runners out, so it is important the horse not only stays the distance, but stays it well. Mostly ran in a straight line with just one right-handed turn, the latter of the race is run on the Rowley mile and its Dermot Weld’s Universal Truth that heads the market at 13/2 with race sponsors Totesport.
The Irish raider is yet to run outside Ireland but has racked up an impressive 50% strike rate in his ten career starts. The 5yo gelding went off favourite at Galway last time but it was far from plain sailing pipping Drumfire by just half a length. However, that was at a reduced 2m and Universal Truth shapes as though the extra 2 furlongs will suit. Testing conditions shouldn’t be a problem either, but the question remains as to whether his stamina will hold-out?
Red Cadeaux is next in the betting at 10/1 (Totesport) and has as good a chance as any in this large field. Ed Dunlop’s 4yo is top on timeform ratings and finished a good second behind Theola in the trial of this race over course and distance last time. The gelding is well handicapped, seems to stay well enough and looks a good bet to go close. Eoin Griffin’s Admiral Barry can be found at a similar price (10/1 Totesport) but has a bit to prove at present. Another horse that has done all of it’s racing in Ireland, he tackles this distance for the first time and this will be a real test of his credentials. Despite winning three times in since his introduction to racing in 2007, he just seems a little vulnerable at that price and there may be better value to be had further up the market.
Ollie Pears sends the interesting My Arch back to Newmarket where he won last time out. The 8yo is one of the more exposed horses that will go to post but represents great each value at 11/1 with Totesport. Kieren Fallon delivered him at just the right time in his last run getting home by a neck and with course experience to his name, it would be foolish to discount him from calculations. Bergo’s another that has drifted in the ante-post market recently, he was as short as 12/1 earlier this week but is now available at 20/1 with most firms. The German import is a progressive sort that has racked up seven wins from fourteen career starts and was beaten by a good horse in Drunken Sailor last time. He must be worth an each-way shout at the very least despite this concerning drift.
Other notable horses with proven stamina include the Simon Pearce trained Dayia (20/1) and Kayf Aramis (33/1) who also falls into that proven stayer category. Whatever happens, it promises to be a difficult race to call so a market inspection prior to placing any bets could prove significant. After the favourite last year Darley Sun was sent off at 9/2 and won, it seems this year the winner will almost certainly return at a larger price. But who will take the £160,000 purse? Get a free £25 bet when you open an account with Stan James this weekend
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