Scotland a value bet to qualify for Euro 2016

In some respects, Scotland’s hopes of qualifying for Euro 2016 are hanging by a thread. Yet, at the same time, there is an argument to suggest they could be a value bet to make it to France.

The Scottish football betting has Gordon Strachan’s side at 12/1 to reach next summer’s tournament, with just two games left to play in the European Qualifiers.

Scotland are currently fourth in Group D and are four points behind third-placed the Republic of Ireland. Recent back-to-back defeats by Georgia and Germany ended Scotland’s chances of qualifying automatically for the finals, but a play-off place is not beyond them.

A four-point gap with two games to play may seem like a tall order, yet in reality it is really all about the next set of matches when Scotland play Poland at Hampden Park and Ireland face Germany at home.

All Scotland need to do is beat Poland and then hope Ireland fail to beat Germany. Even Scotland should then be confident of winning away against Gibraltar in their final group match and that would secure third spot.

Picking up two wins would put Scotland on 17 points and that’s a tally that both Poland and Ireland can’t beat, providing the scenario above happens. As Scotland would then have a better head-to-head record against Poland and Ireland, that would ensure they take third spot. Read more about the latest odds here.

The question, of course, is can Scotland beat Poland?

History between the two teams is relatively thin on the ground, but Scotland will certainly take heart from their performance in the 2-2 draw in Poland in October last year. Shaun Maloney equalised for Scotland that day before Steven Naismith put them in front, only for Arkadiusz Milik to earn Poland a point.

There was a vibrancy about Scotland’s performance in that game that was missing in the 1-0 defeat in Georgia earlier this month. However, the positive for Strachan is that energy returned in the 3-2 defeat at home by Germany. That performance showed Scotland are capable of pushing the best teams, and it is certainly a reason why they shouldn’t fear anyone if they do make the play-offs.

The big issue facing Strachan for the visit of Poland is whether to stick with Steven Fletcher up front. It would be folly to change tactics in search of the necessary win, as that would make Scotland easy to pick off for a clever Poland side, but he possibly needs more of a threat up front.

Fletcher has only scored against Gibraltar in the qualifying campaign so far and Naismith has put his hand up to show a willingness to play as the lone striker against Poland if required. Having scored a hat-trick against Chelsea, Naismith is in the form to play that role.

Strachan has taken a pragmatic approach throughout qualification and it has been the same regarding whether Scotland can still qualify. There are enough points left to get the job done and Scotland have the potential to do it.

Their last appearance in a major tournament was in the 1998 World Cup in France and there would be a certain symmetry if they were able to repeat the feat. At 12/1 at the time of writing, they are certainly a tempting price.

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