Investec Derby betting and odds

The Derby betting preview

The flat season certainly is in full swing; witnessing Frankel destroy the 2,000 Guineas field probably eclipsed the Royal Wedding celebrations a day earlier. And now the prestigious of the five classics and Britain’s richest horse race; the Investec Derby at Epsom takes place on Saturday, writes Mikey Mumford. The Queen’s Carlton House is all the rage as he bids to give her Majesty a first derby winner; after nine failed attempts. The race over 1m4f is open to three-year-olds thoroughbreds and fillies; they will have to successfully negotiate Tattenham corner before they lay down their charge for the finish line. Get a free £25 bet on the Derby with William Hill here.

Doubts have been cast as to whether Carlton House remains in contention for the race after he suffered swelling to the leg in a routine gallop this week. A decision will be made on Sir Michael Stoute’s colt closer to the time but should he pass a fitness test this year’s Dante winner looks the one to beat. Ryan Moore rode him with the utmost restraint before unleashing his assault on Seville at York and while he may need to improve further; there’s no questioning he still has more to offer. It would be fitting for the Queen should she finally land the Derby in a Royal Wedding year but at 9/4 Carlton House looks short enough and expect that price to plummet closer to the off.

In his six starts Castlemorris King has looked out his depth for trainer Michael Attwater. He’s gone off at 80/1 and bigger on four of those starts and is earmarked at 500/1 (1,000/1 with Stan James) currently for this race. Undeserving of his place in this field; needs a miracle to make an impact here.

Difficult to weigh up Marhaba Malyoon on her two starts; he won ran on strongly to take a poor event at Bath on debut and finished last of six in the Derby Trial at Lingfield latest. Does not possess the quality and class of some of these and another who just makes up the numbers at 150/1.

John Gosden has never won the Derby and after a comfortable maiden victory at Sandown Masked Marvel (25/1) could only manage mid-division finishes at Ascot and Sandown again. He rediscovered in a listed event at Goodwood over 1m3f in an okay race and could run a nice race if putting his best foot forward.

Ballydoyle have supplemented four runners for the Derby, one of whom Aidan’s son Joseph O’Brien takes the ride on; Memphis Tennessee (20/1). He finished a good second behind stable’s first string Recital at Leopardstown last time over 1m2f and won his maiden at Dundalk the time before. O’Brien’s horses are always dangerous but one would expect Recital and Seville to challenge the top order.

Kieren Fallon ditched the ride on Ed Dunlop’s Native Khan so able deputy Johnny Murtagh comes in to do the steering on this Craven and Solario Stakes winner. The French colt was beaten into second by Dubawi Gold in the 2,000 Guineas; both proved no match for Frankel but it is unlikely he’ll come up against anything like him here and is respected. Native Khan (10/1) is unraced beyond a mile so there are question marks over this extended distance.

Astonishingly Godolphin have never won the Epsom Derby and Rewilding’s disappointing show last year failed to put an end to that run. Frankie Dettori won on Authorized in 2007 (his first Derby winner) and he tries again on Ocean War (14/1) trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni. He  notched a couple of impressive Newmarket successes in April and this grey should give his running once more. Whether he’s good enough is unknown but he couldn’t have a better jockey aboard.

Pisco Sour (66/1) ran a really nice race in the Dante behind Carlton House and Seville without ever really troubling the leading pair. Hughie Morrison has him in good order after a good second to Fury last coupled with a success on the all weather at Southwell and a straightforward win at Windsor. However, he’s not met the competition he’ll meet on Saturday and one or two will ahve their reservations about him in this company.

The most likely challenger to Carlton House in the betting is Pour Moi (7/2) for shrewd French trainer Andre Fabre. Up and coming star Mickael Barzalona has the huge task of delivering this horse who Fabre says is his best ever Derby Hope. Pre Greffulhe winner Pour Moi price has hardened since these comments but none of Fabre’s previous nine Derby runners have troubled the judge. However, it’s hard to discount a success in this one day after numerous Arcs, Coronation Cups, a Guineas and an Oaks under his belt already.

Ballydoyle’s main hope probably lies with Recital after who won on debut and at Leopardstown latest where he was sent off odds on favourite. His only defeat came on good to firm ground at Leopardstown at 8/13 where he hung badly left. It’s difficult to assess what this form equates to but this form alone will not win him the Derby he must up his game in this stronger company under Kieren Fallon. At 9/2 he looks a little short and as has been proved he is beatable.

Punters losing faith in Seville after his defeat to Carlton House in the Dante should not be hasty in discounting him this time. He can reverse the form providing the extra distance does not prove too much of a hindrance. The race seemed to fall into the hands of Carlton House last time and Seville probably took the lead too early and a waiting game might be deployed this time. Christophe Soumillon is in the saddle and he might well fare the best out of the Aidan O’Brien’s contingent. He’s never been out of the top two; big run expected.

Treasure Beach has bits and bobs of decent form in the book; notably his Chester Vase win where he beat the well fancied Nathaniel. He was third in the Juddmonte never near to Frankel, and won an average Nursery at Galway last year. Similar to Seville, he too has never finished outside the top three and at 25/1 must be quietly fancied to sneak in there again under Colm O’Donoghue.

Alain de Royer-Dupre enters French colt Vadamar (14/1)who failed to beat Pour Moi in the Pre Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud last month despite being sent off odds on. He could only finish third in that race but connections are quietly confident that the horse, who has reportedly been working well at home, should run his race.

Another great Derby and there are several in with chances. Aidan O’Brien holds a strong hand with his four runners with preferences for Seville and Recital. The Queen’s Carlton House will surely go off around the even money mark if he runs and looks the one beat on the back of the Dante win. But the tentative call goes to NATIVE KHAN who consistently runs good races and deserves his break on the biggest of stages; Pour Moi could battle it out with him. Get a free £25 bet on the Derby with William Hill here.

By Mikey Mumford

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