Are Kauto Star and Denman past their best ?

Cheltenham Festival Gold Cup preview

They have tasted success in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in three of the last four years, but 2010 has been a year both Kauto Star and Denman will want to forget in a hurry. The Paul Nicholls’ trained duo have won the hearts of the horse racing nation over the last five years with some scintillating performances on the biggest of stages.

Arguably, Denman’s career highlight came in the 2008 running of the Cheltenham Festival showpiece at the expense of his stablemate Kauto Star. His excessive weight in the Hennessey Gold Cup prevented him from completing a memorable three-timer, but with 14 lengths to find giving away almost two stone, are his doubters right to believe age has finally caught up with him? Will it be the chance for the likes of Imperial Commander and Long Run?

Kauto Star on the other hand, the most successful chaser in recent years will be gunning for a remarkable third success in the most valuable non-handicap chase in Britain. A faller in the event last time, Clive Smith’s gelding had his sights set on an unprecedented fifth successive King George VI win in the rearranged chase at Kempton Park. A workmanlike performance in the Champion Chase at Down Royal seemed to have the 10-year-old primed for an assault on Desert Orchid’s long standing record of four King George’s. Sent off at 4/7, Kauto Star looked a shadow of his former self when he badly blundered 2 out almost unseating Tony McCoy. Taking nothing away from the impressive Long Run, can Nicholls’ star performer rise to the challenge of another Gold Cup tilt at the age of eleven?

Nevertheless, both Kauto Star and Denman’s failure to notch their targeted races have seen the pair pushed out in the ante-post betting for the big March showdown. Punters were quick to snap up the revised odds after these respective defeats when Kauto Star was pushed out to as high as 10/1 and Denman trading around the 6/1 mark. Rather unsurprisingly, this excellent value didn’t last long and now Kauto is 7/1 across the board with his stablemate remaining solid at 6s. Regardless of their latest blips, if both horses can recover in time for Cheltenham and their shrewd trainer is adamant they can, they’re nigh on a certainty to back as each-way propositions.

Somewhat worryingly, Kauto Star was reported to have had a minor bleed from both nostrils after returning to his stable after the King George. But connections refused to make excuses for his below-par run, but he certainly needs to be putting his best foot forward at Cheltenham and his experience will be vital such is his vulnerability to a young and upcoming improver. Similarly, Denman falls into the same bracket and he will also be eleven by the time the Gold Cup comes around. However, his run in the event last time left a lot to be desired considering he seems to save his best runs for the festival. The horse goes well fresh and a good gallop from the off could get a few of these panicking in behind such is his aggressive and gallant style of running.

If age was no barrier, surely Kauto Star and Denman would be all the rave once more going into the 2011 Gold Cup renewal. But statistics in the race make grim reading for older runners – no horse older than 10 has triumphed since 1969 when 12-year-old What a Myth claimed victory. The recent trend is crystal clear that the race often serves up winners nine years or younger although Desert Orchid did manage to place in 1991 at the age of twelve. Therefore, the writing isn’t necessarily on the wall for Paul Nicholls’ coveted pair especially at such excellent each-way value with most firms paying a ¼ of the odds for the first three home. Denman has finished second in this race in the previous two years and on that evidence cannot be discarded as he and Kauto Star bid to cement their names in Cheltenham Gold Cup history!

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