Tottenham v West Ham Betting Preview

If you had asked at the start of the season to predict the result of this fixture, then most people would have said a Tottenham home win, without much hesitation. But asking the question now – it’s totally different. West Ham have been exceptional this year and are indeed the surprise package in the Premier League this season.

In recent weeks Andre Villa Boas (AVB) has been coming under increasingly amounts of pressure, whether it is deserved or not. But one thing that is for certain is that AVB and Tottenham are not performing well; not keeping clean sheets and more importantly, not picking up points. In Tottenham’s last five Premier League matches they have picked up three points, losing four of those matches. Moreover, two of those matches were at White Hart Lane where Tottenham are usually strong. Choose a free bet offer for this match.

In my opinion the problem is that Tottenham are suited to playing in a counter-attack style. With Bale, Lennon and Defoe they have the pace and ability to cause any team problems when breaking fast. However, they are missing the midfield talisman to be able to play those crucial balls when teams set up to defend against them. Since selling Luka Modric in the summer, Tottenham have never looked the same and as threatening when trying to break teams down. This is why Tottenham are failing to pick up points at home in games that they should arguably be winning. Teams come to the Lane with hopes of picking up a point and sit back to defend, using set pieces as their main source of attack. This is great for teams like Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea who all have exceptionally gifted attackers who are capable of playing those crucial balls to break teams down (Mata, Hazard, Silva, Nasri, Rooney and Kagawa to name a few).

Not many would have predicted that West Ham would be 6^th in the Premier League table after 13 games, but that’s where they are – and they fully deserve to be. Some may argue that West Ham are boring and that they don’t play football the right way (etc.) but one quote from manager Sam Alladyce epitomises their success – “There’s only one right way to play football, and that’s to win”.  He has embedded this motto into his team and they have been very impressive in both defensive and attack this season. Also, having not lost in their last three matches, including a goalless draw with Manchester City, West Ham will be going to White Hart Lane full of confidence.

This fixture is one that could go one of two ways; it could either be really exciting with lots of goals, or a good (boring) battle of attack versus defence. The later one looks the more likely and I wouldn’t count on this game being a great spectacle.

Last five league matches:

DWDLW                                                                       

West Ham 1-1 Stoke City
Newcastle 0-1 West Ham
West Ham 0-0 Manchester City
Wigan 2-1 West Ham
West Ham 4-1 Southampton

LLLWL

Arsenal 5-2 Tottenham
Manchester City 2-1 Tottenham
Tottenham 0-1 Wigan
Southampton 1-2 Tottenham
Tottenham 2-4 Chelsea

HEAD-2-HEAD:

Tottenham 0-0 West Ham
West Ham 1-0 Tottenham
Tottenham 2-0 West Ham
West Ham 1-2 Tottenham
West Ham 0-1 Tottenham

Prediction:

As mentioned early, Tottenham have struggled to break teams down that sit back and defend – and this is exactly what West Ham will do on Sunday. It is likely that West Ham will go to the Lane to defend, using set pieces as their main source of attack. So the question is – can Tottenham break down West Ham?

In recent weeks, West Ham have been very promising and have stopped both Newcastle and Manchester City from scoring. Whereas Tottenham have failed to break teams down and have been relying on their counter attacks or fortune through the oppositions lacklustre defending. Because I feel Tottenham may struggle to break West Ham down once, let alone twice, West Ham +2 goal handicap looks a fantastic bet. This is widely available to back at 4/6 and certainly represents value for money. If Tottenham do win (which they need too) statistics and recent form indicate that it won’t be by more than one goal.

1)      In six out of the last seven meetings between these two sides there has been fewer than three goals in very tightly contested matches. And in addition to this, looking further back we can see that in only six out of the last twenty three encounters has this game managed to see more than two goals. So it looks like under 2.5 goals @ 23/20 offers fantastic value. Further to this, West Ham average fewer than three goals per game and have not had more than three in any of their last three league fixtures. Therefore, I feel that this is a great bet and at odds against it offers good value. If you wish to play a safer option at much lower odds, then backing under 1.5 first half goals @ 1/3 may be advisable. However, this is much too short to tip, even though it is very likely given the way the match looks likely to pan out.

2)      Tottenham are finding it very difficult to keep clean sheets this season and have conceded in each of their last X league matches. In contrast to this, West Ham are scoring goals in most of their matches, only being held by league champions Manchester City in their last X league matches. Further to this, Tottenham have not kept a clean sheet at home all season and West Ham have scored in each of their last X away league games. Given the aerial threat that West Ham can offer, I do think that this is their most likely chance of scoring, and I do think they will score. This leads me to consider three options; both teams to score at 10/11, West Ham to score first or West Ham to win either half at 2/1.  After much deliberation I have opted for West Ham to win either half at 2/1 as it is a great bet. In each of Tottenham’s last five games they have lost at least one of the halves.

Recap:

• West Ham +2 goal handicap @ 4/6
• Under 2.5 goals @ 23/20
• West Ham to win either half @ 2/1

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