Although the long odds may be tempting, don’t be drawn in to backing Moldova in this one. The odds aren’t that long – £1 wins you only £13.30 – and if you really want to throw your money away there are much quicker methods (burning it, flushing it down the toilet, buying into a Ponzi scheme, etc.)
In footballing terms, Moldova are the bottom of the barrel. When you examine the numbers, it makes it very hard to have any faith in this team pulling off an upset, even at home. They are perennial whipping-boys, having finished in the bottom two in all but one of their tournament qualification groups since 1994.
If you really fancy the Moldovans in this one though, a draw might be a good shout. They’ve recorded competitive draws with big footballing countries before – Turkey, Norway, Scotland and Greece to name a few – and with the crowd behind them who knows what could happen. England are obviously more illustrious opponents than the aforementioned nations, but are travelling to Kishinev with a weakened side. Check out all the free bets available for this match.
Managed by the pragmatic Roy Hodgson, England probably won’t set out in a fluid 4-3-3, but rather a more rigid 4-4-2. This Hodgson trademark is well-organised and hard to break down, but it also lacks creativity at times. England could struggle to make chances and Moldova will be content to sit back and soak up pressure. At 17/4 (bwin.com), a punt on a draw might be wise.
England
Although England fans are notoriously cynical about their team, it’s hard to argue with their record in this format, even in the face of such short odds.
Moldova will probably finish in the bottom two in this group, which bodes well for England’s chances. In tournament qualifiers since 1988, the Three Lions have won 38 of their 44 matches against teams who finish in the bottom two in their group, picking up 120 points of a possible 132.
With the result something of a formality, a bet on the score after 90 minutes is very worthwhile. Expect England to win, but with some key players missing (most notably their strikers) and a somewhat rigid formation, a low-scoring victory could well be on the cards. At 7/1 (188Bet), England 1-0 is sensible, as is England 2-0 at 11/2 Betfred.
Although the odds might be tempting, don’t waste your money on a victory for Moldova. If you’re feeling adventurous, a bet on a draw might be clever. 1-1 at 10/1 William Hill and 0-0 at 64/5 Betfair are worth taking advantage of.
An England win looks by far the most likely outcome. With Andy Carroll and Wayne Rooney both injured, look for Jermain Defoe to start. He’s already scored for both club and country this season so 4/1 BetVictor for him to grab the first are generous odds.
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