Dortmund v Manchester City Betting Preview

This fixture sees two teams that already know their fate for the Champions’ League group stages meet; Dortmund will top the group ahead of Real Madrid, whilst City will plummet out for the second successive season.  So it begs the question – does this game even matter? Well, yes, yes it does. Dortmund will want to maintain their unbeaten run and for City, well, they have to win if they want to qualify to the Europa League. Whether or not they do actually want to qualify is another question. Choose a free bet for this match here.

Dortmund DDWWW

Dortmund have taken the Champions League by storm this season and haven’t lost a game yet, which is very impressive considering they have played the Spanish, English and Dutch champions. Further to this, in their history they have never lost on home soil to an English side, which doesn’t bode well for Manchester City.

It is no secret that Dortmund have some fantastic players that thrive in the big games. Anyone that has watched them this season will know that they are a fast, well-equipped, disciplined team.

The key player for this game is likely to be Mario Gotze, an attacking midfielder who will play just behind the striker. The German International has already netted five times this season including an equalising goal against Bayern Munich in a 1-1 draw on the weekend. He is likely to run the game and his play is probably going to dictate the result of the match. If Dortmund win this match and play well then Gotze is usually the man to get them going and because of this, backing him to receive the ‘man of the match’ award may be advisable.

Manchester City DWDDW

Manchester City on the other hand have been somewhat disappointing having lost both of their away games and drawn all three of their home games in this seasons Champions League.  Further to this, City have been disappointing recently in the Premier League and are now three points behind United, who top the table.

City have relied heavily on their three big-money strikers to get the goals for them this season; Tevez has netted seven times, Dzeko six times and Aguero five times. It has been the creating chances side of things where Manchester City have struggled this season, partly to do with missing catalyst David Silva, but he is back now and City ought to get back to scoring goals. The problem facing manager Mancini for this game is which striker or strikers he should start with.

Dzeko has been prolific when coming off the bench this season scoring vital goals against Tottenham, WBA and Fulham, but he has been a different player when starting games. All three strikers offer great value to score anytime in this match and are widely available to back around the 2/1 mark.

Prediction:

Dortmund have shown this season that they are one of the best teams in the world. They have come up against and held their own against the Spanish, English and Dutch champions, which is extremely impressive. Further to this, they have been playing some exceptional football and scoring goals, having scored in every Champions League game so far this season. Creative forward players Gotze, Reus and Lewandowski have been the main threats for them and are likely to cause City all sorts of problems on Tuesday. But having said this, City have been improving and have kept three clean sheets in their last five games, a much better record than at the start of the season. However, they are still finding it difficult to break teams down and in Germany, a Dortmund win at 11/10 looks likely.

Mancini is also likely to have one eye (or two) on the massive Manchester derby this weekend which is going to shape the title race, for now anyway. Because of this the City manager could opt to field a weakened team and rest key players Silva, Toure, Tevez and Kompany for the midweek trip to Germany.  He is seemingly not bothered about qualifying for the Europa league this season and why should he be? Without the ‘hindrance’ of midweek games then maybe his City side can use their extra stamina to win more games and gain an advantage over title rivals. This would mean that he may not play any or only one of his top three strikers and without those three scoring, goals have been hard to come by this season.

Therefore because of the fact City may play a weakened team and not be able to pose much threat and the form of the two sides the following bets are advisable.

Bets:

• Dortmund to score first @ 8/11

Dortmund have scored first in each of their five Champions League games so far and in contrast City have only scored first in one of theirs. This looks a solid bet.

• Dortmund to score 3+ goals @ 4/1

If as expected Manchester City play a weakened team then they could suffer a heavy defeat to the strong German side. This bet is subject to team news, but even with a full-strength team out City have been woeful at the back in this seasons Champions League.

• Mats Hummels to score anytime @ 8/1

Manchester City have conceded most of their goals this season from set-pieces. This may be because they do not have the height in their team, as apart from Kompany, Toure, Lescott and Dzeko the majority of their team are small creative players. Hummels on the other hand is a big powerful German who is more than capable of scoring goals. At 8/1 this offers exceptional value.

Enjoy a £10 free bet with Stan James – simply open an account and bet £10 and Stan James will give you a free £10 bet! Click here to get this offer. Make sure you also check out our betting tips section for previews of other upcoming fixtures.

Written by Mark Stefanyszyn