Chelsea Form : WWLWL
Fans of the Blues will head into this game with more confidence than the away game, surprising considering they trail 3 – 1 on aggregate but we all know what wonders a new manager can do to a team. Under new boss Roberto di Matteo, Chelsea have recorded two, albeit modest, victories over Birmingham City and Stoke City, both without conceding a goal. Wednesday night’s game however will be quite a different challenge for the Londoners. Chelsea have Juan Mata and Daniel Sturridge, arguably the club’s two best players this season, returning to the starting eleven and they will need them both to perform to the top of their game if they are to overturn the Italians in what is by far their most difficult game since Villas-boas’ departure. Di Matteo will have made it clear to his team how important it is to stay in the Champions League, with them being all but out of the title race. After being sacked by West Brom last February, he will most likely never get a chance like this to manage a big club such as Chelsea and so di Matteo will be doing his all to make sure he gets the job on a permanent basis. In the short term, despite improving slightly of late Gary Cahill hasn’t had the best start to his Chelsea career and he will have to up his game if he and captain John Terry, who missed the first leg, are going to keep Napoli’s brilliant attacking trio of Edinson Cavani, Ezequiel Lavezzi and Marek Hamsik at bay.
Napoli Form: WWWWW
The form guide makes pretty painful reading for Chelsea fans; Napoli have won their last six in a row, scoring on average nearly three goals a game. They stormed to a 6 – 3 win over Cagliari even though star striker Edinson Cavani was rested from the starting eleven. He will return on Wednesday night and Napoli will be hoping he can score the important away goal that would see Chelsea needing to score at least three if they were to progress. Also returning will be coach Walter Mazzarri after the Court of Arbitration for Sport agreed to study an appeal into his two-match touchline ban. The Southern Italian side’s recent run of form has seen them rise to sixth in Serie A, overtaking the likes of Inter Milan, Udinese and Roma. Despite possessing brilliant attackers, Napoli don’t have the greatest of defences, as shown when Juan Mata was allowed to score in the first leg and they will need to weather a storm from the Chelsea attack if they are to progress to the next round.
Match Prediction: Chelsea win 1.73 – William Hill
Also – Both teams to score 1.61 – William Hill
Despite a poor season, Chelsea still have a superb team and if they are rejuvenated following the departure of the less than popular Andres Villas-Boas I think they can get a victory. Whether that victory will be enough to see them qualify I’m not sure as I can see Napoli scoring despite Chelsea not conceding a goal at home in this seasons Champions League. One thing to be sure of though is that it will be a game of attacking football with the home side doing their utmost to turn the tie around and the away side looking to hit the Londoners on the counter attack.
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Arsenal
Arsenal have been on a great run of form in their last 3 games. After losing back to back matches against Milan and Sunderland, they have gone on a good run in the league and very nearly overturned the 4 goal deficit in the Champions League. The two league wins were equally vital and impressive, with a home thrashing of Tottenham and an away win at Anfield. It’s no surprise then that the Gunners are firm favourites going into this home tie, and are best priced at 1.5 with Betfred. In terms of goals, there’s only one person to look at for Arsenal, Robin Van Persie. The Dutchman has bagged 25 in the league already, and so the striker is the obvious choice at 4.0 with bet365 to score the opening goal. A hectic schedule has taken its toll on Arsene Wenger’s squad, and he is currently without 7 first team players. Despite this, they have averaged just over 3 goals in their last 3 games, so backing them to score in both halves will give a small return with odds of 2.1 available at Sky Bet.
Newcastle
Newcastle fought back from a goal down last Sunday to earn a draw in the Tyne-Wear derby last weekend, but that made it 3 games without a win for Alan Pardew’s side. The Magpies still sit in 6th spot above Liverpool, but they need to start winning again if they are to hold on for the rest of the season. Newcastle are clear outsiders going into the game, and are best priced as long as 7.5 with Stan James. Their away form hasn’t been too bad this season, winning 5 of their 13 games, but they have struggled at the bigger teams and recently lost 5-0 away at Tottenham. Despite this, Alan Pardew has two strikers that can cause Arsenal some serious problems. Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse have pace and power, and both are available at 4.0 with Sky Bet to score at any time, good odds considering Ba has 16 this season.
Match Prediction
Arsenal’s improvement in recent weeks has coincided with a slight dip in form for Newcastle. The Gunners pace upfront should see them through against a team that suffered against Tottenham in similar circumstances. Arsene Wenger’s side still look vulnerable at the back though, so both teams should find themselves on the score sheet in a 2-1 win for Arsenal.
2-1 Arsenal – 9.0 Ladbrokes
Robin Van Persie first goal scorer – 4.0 Bet365
Demba Ba/Cisse anytime scorers – 4.0 Sky Bet
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The Trotter’s head into this game second bottom of the Premier League with a measly points total of twenty points from twenty-seven games. They have lost their last four league games, losing the last two without scoring. Albeit these games were against two high-flying teams in Manchester City and Chelsea but more worrying in the previous game they lost a relegation six pointer 2 – 1 at home to Wigan Athletic. Their main problem this season has been scoring goals; summer signing David N’Gog has failed to deliver the goods whereas veteran Kevin Davies has never been renowned as a regular goalscorer. They didn’t have the same problems last season but prolific forwards Daniel Sturridge and Johan Elmander left the club. They have scored only twenty seven goals all season and only one in their last five. This kind of form will have to change if they are to beat Queens Park Rangers in another relegation six pointer on Saturday.
Queens Park Rangers
QPR have not started as well as chairman Tony Fernandes would have hoped under new manager Mark Hughes. It was an appointment welcomed by many yet he has struggled to make an impact on team performances so far. This is despite splashing the cash both in the summer and in January on proven Premiership stars such as Joey Barton, Shaun Wright-Phillips, Djibrill Cisse and Bobby Zamora. After losing three games in a row they managed to get a creditable draw at home to a resurgent Everton side and Hughes will be hoping this can be the starting point for a climb up the table. They will be hoping for more luck on the road than of late as they travel to the Reebok Stadium without a win in eight away games.
Match Prediction : Draw (3.10 – William Hill)
With both teams in such poor form it is a tough match to predict. The home side have the better head to head record; they’ve not lost to QPR in their last six meetings, winning five of them. With Bolton struggling to score goals, Mark Hughes will be hoping for his big-name strikers to deliver the goods and ensure his team can move away from the relegation zone. However, this is a must-win game for Bolton as a win would see them overtake their opponents and maybe even take them out of the relegation. It will be a close-fought battle but for me a draw seems the most likely result.
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The big game on Sunday evening sees Tottenham host Man United at home in a big clash at the top of the table. Tottenham suffered a heavy defeat away at local rivals Arsenal last weekend, whilst Man United grabbed a late winner away at Norwich to claim 3 valuable points.
Tottenham
Spurs have had a great season so far, but their 5-2 defeat to Arsenal last time out all but ended their title hopes. They will be looking for a good win here though, to ensure they take a Champions League place come the end of the season. Spurs confidence will be dented after their collapse against Arsenal, and they will have to defend a lot better on Sunday. The home side are slight underdogs going into the game, but are still a fairly short price at 3.0 with William Hill. This gives an indication into how tight this game may be, and so betting on a draw with odds of 3.4 from Bet365, is looking a good pick. Spurs have been prolific in front of goal this season, and winger Gareth Bale is looking a great price at 4.33 with William Hill to score at any time during the game.
Man United
Man United are sitting nicely in second place in the Premier League, just 2 points behind the leaders Man City. Alex Ferguson is notorious for grinding out close wins at this stage of the season, so betting on a 2-1 away win should give a good return with odds of 10.0 from Ladbrokes. This looks a particularly good bet, as Man United’s away form is the best in the league so far, with an impressive 9 wins from 13 games. Wayne Rooney should also be fit for the trip down south, and the England player is looking a good bet at 6.0 with Paddy Power to open the scoring, after netting the 1st goal on 4 occasions so far this season. Both of these sides definitely have a goal in them, and so betting on both teams to score in the 1st half, looks promising with odds of 4.0 from Skybet.
Highlighted Bets
Draw – 3.4 Bet365
Gareth Bale anytime scorer – 4.33 William Hill
2-1 Man United – 10.0 Ladbrokes
Rooney 1st scorer – 6.0 Paddy Power
Both teams to score 1st half – 4.0 Skybet
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Liverpool: League Position: 7th, League Form: DLWDL
Can the Carling Cup victory over Cardiff last week be a platform to success for this Liverpool team? For them winning was all important, and history will always have their name on a trophy in 2012. But Cardiff were able to hold Liverpool for a long time, and did make their chances.
Liverpool most definitely have not been playing like a team who can take fourth place. Fortress Anfield has not exactly been breached, but the fear factor is certainly gone. They will be happy to be unbeaten in front of their own fans, but a good side needs to be taking more points at home. Drawing eight of their twelve home games has clearly not been good enough. And only three teams (QPR, West Brom and Wigan) have scored fewer goals in front of their own fans. 14 goals is a poor return, and an indication to their approach this season.
Arsenal: League Position: 4th, League Form: LDWWW
A season that looked to be turning for the worse after defeats to AC Milan and Sunderland, in the Champions League and FA Cup respectively, got the sudden jolt it needed on Sunday at The Emirates. Coming into a North London derby billed as the biggest for 20 years they finally looked to have been surpassed by Tottenham. They had every right to be worried that an in-form Spurs could fire themselves away from Arsenal in the league, and that and the defeat in general would have been a bitter pill to swallow for Gunners everywhere. 2-0 down, they erupted into form, taking it to 2-2 before half time and blitzing Spurs in the second, winning 5-2.
That win has given Arsenal, Wenger and everyone involved with the club something to smile about. That positivity will be beyond useful coming into the business end of the season. Arsenal and their great financial model will take a huge blow without Champions League football. They need to come off a big win like that and retain the momentum. It may be more important not to lose at Liverpool rather than go out and seek a win, but they do not have it in their locker to play for the draw.
Arteta, Ramsey, Rosicky and Song will all vie for position in their midfield. All of these players will stick to the Arsene Wenger way, keeping the ball on the deck and in Arsenal colours. And with Van Persie still scoring, and Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain in flying form on the wings, they can trouble Liverpool.
Match Prediction: Draw – 3.6 Bet Fred
Liverpool do not thrill at home. They do not thrill away from home either, but that is much more acceptable, and their eight home draws suggest maybe the 3.6 available for such a result is value.
Arsenal should have regained some confidence with their destruction of Spurs at the weekend. They need to come off a big win like that and retain the momentum. It may be more important not to lose at Liverpool rather than go out and seek a win, but they do not have it in their locker to play for the draw.
Arsenal’s inability to play to defend is what leads to the conclusion that there is at least a goal each in this for the sides. Both have won possibly their biggest games of the season in the past week, and should be flying coming into this game.
One man who has got to be on a high is the flying Dutchman Dirk Kuyt. Coming on to have a massive impact in the Carling Cup final, with a goal, a goal line clearance and a converted penalty, Kuyt then set up Huntelaar’s goal in the England v Holland friendly. Can Kuyt carry on his fine form here? 10.00 suggests he’s a good shout for first goal.
Highlighted Bets:-
Over/Under: Under 2.5 Goals – 2.00 Bet 365
First Goalscorer: Dirk Kuyt – 10.00 Sky Bet
Correct Score: 1-1 Draw – 7.5 William Hill
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The North London Derby returns on Sunday, and it looks set to be another great game as Arsenal and Spurs battle it out at the Emirates. This is a big game for both teams, but a defeat here for Arsenal would see them 13 points adrift of their rivals and perhaps even outside the top 4. Whereas, a win for Spurs would see them keep in touch with the two Manchester clubs going into the final months of the season.
Arsenal
The pressure is really on for Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger at the moment, after The Gunners lost their last two games. A 4-0 defeat away to Milan has all but ended their Champions League hopes, and they were also dumped out of the FA Cup away to Sunderland. Despite this, Arsenal are slight favourites going into the clash, and are best priced at 2.5 with Skybet and several other bookmakers. Goals look to be the best bet this Sunday, as the last 3 games between these two have produced a total of 14 goals. Arsenal have been pretty poor at the back as well this season, conceding 35 goals in their 25 league games. So betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.73 from Skybet and both teams to score at 1.62 from Coral is looking a must. William Hill are also offering great odds of 6.0 on Robin Van Persie to open the scoring, which are definitely worth looking at considering his form this season.
Tottenham
Spurs have been flying so far this season, and although winning the title looks just too much for Harry Redknapp, 3rd place in the league looks the very least they will achieve. Tottenham’s short odds of 2.9 at William Hill are testament to their good form this season, and they could definitely come away with a win on Sunday. A correct score of 2-1 Spurs is showing some good value, particularly with odds of 11.0 available from Ladbrokes. Tottenham have only scored 1 more goal than Arsenal this season, but their defence has been much stronger, and have conceded 10 less. Emmanuel Adebayor looks set to face his former club, and so betting on the striker to score at any time could give a decent return with odds of 3.0 available from Coral.
Highlighted Bets
Over 2.5 goals – 1.73 Skybet
Both teams to score 1.62 Coral
Van Persie 1st goal scorer – 6.0 William Hill
2-1 Spurs – 11.0 Ladbrokes
Adebayor anytime scorer – 3.0 Coral
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Manchester City: League Position: 1st, League Form: WWLWW
12 home games, maximum points taken from those, 37 scored and only six conceded. No team in the Premier League can better those figures, and no team in the Premier League sits above them. Leading the Premiership at this stage is something City fans have never known before, and as the business end of the season really kicks into gear they have to handle the pressure if they are to get their hands around the trophy come the last day.
Since putting a poor January behind them, where they went out of both domestic cups and lost two league games, they have won all four of their games in Februrary. Yaya Toure has returned from the African Cup of Nations, and they have stayed top through their dip. Sergio Aguero has found his scoring boots again, with three goals in the four games this month. Their destruction of Porto in the Europa League in the past two games should lift them further. A goal down in Porto, they took the match 2-1 before tearing the Portuguese team apart at the Etihad on Wednesday, a more than comfortable 4-0.
Blackburn Rovers: League Position: 17th, League Form: WDLLW
The turmoil of Ewood Park and Blackburn Rovers will not end this season, whether they stay up or not, as the fans continue to voice their dissent against owners and the manager. Steve Kean would probably be happy for an away game, and the quiet away from a home crowd, except for the fact his side has only won one away from home all season. On top of that, they have conceded 30 goals on their travels, more than any other side, and never did they look poorer than in their last away trip. Arsenal smashed seven past them at the start of the month, hitting the nadir of their fortunes on the road.
However, they reacted two weeks ago in their last game, beating QPR 3-2 at home. They flew to a 3-0 half time lead, and although it ended 3-2 those points were massive for Rovers. They are only out of the relegation places on goal difference, and had they not allowed QPR to get those goals back they would have leapfrogged them into 16th.
Top scorer Yakubu is as ever the man to watch in terms of goals, with an impressive 14 this season. But whilst they do have a potent goal scoring threat, their defence leaves them all at sea. The worst defence in the league, 56 conceded, will get no better with news captain and central defender Christopher Samba could be on his way to Russian club Anzhi.
Match Prediction: Manchester City Win – 1.2 William Hill
Premier League leaders Manchester City should walk through this Blackburn side at home. Steve Kean will set up to defend with 10 and hope Yakubu can steal a goal, but City are a patient side full of quality, and they are used to teams playing solely to contain. In fact, they have struggled more recently with teams who want to attack them. Players like David Silva will be content to work the ball around until the opportunity arises to break a defence apart. And after one goal the doors may open, as Blackburn find they have to score.
City are not as fast in possession as Arsenal, but have the ability to fire similar amount of goals past Blackburn if they fall to pieces again. Their impressive, 100% home record against Blackburn’s poor away form and struggling defence is a recipe for disaster for Steve Kean and his side. As is Sergio Aguero’s return to form.
Highlighted Bets:-
Over/Under: Over 2.5 Goals – 1.4 Blue Sq
First Goalscorer: Sergio Aguero – 4.33 Tote Sport, Bet Fred
Correct Score: 3-0 Manchester City – 8.5 Coral
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Manchester United: League Position: 2nd, Form: LWDWW
Manchester United may not be happy to be in the Europa League, but with their elimination from every other cup competition they now have only this and the League to compete for. With Manchester City leading the league, with the Europa League United could end up trophyless. Not only that, this is also a competition Ferguson has never won, and he will hope not to compete in it again before his time is up.
They are lucky to have more and more players coming back to fitness, boosting their squad and giving them more options. They are used to two games a week when the business end of the season starts, but this tournament will be deemed less important. As such players will be rested, especially as they chase City in the league.
They stormed the first leg, attacking at will and enjoying their football. With their high end experience in European football they will know how to handle a 2-0 goal lead, should be comfortable with their plan and relax into the game like a top class team would. They have scored in all bar one of their matches this season, signs that two away goals will be utilised well.
Ajax: League Position: 6th, Form: LLWLW
Five points off the top of Eredivisie, Ajax are not the team they once were, and have not been for a long time. Once a power in Europe, more recently they have had to watch on from the sidelines. They are now struggling to be a power in the reasonably weak Dutch league.
Dutch legend Frank De Boer has a squad with talent scattered amongst it, but they have become even more about their youth products than ever before. However, without the money of the bigger boys, they have had to embrace the business model it is and sell this talent at the right times. Young midfielder Christian Eriksen looks to have the potential to be a world class player, and showed glimpses against Manchester United last week, but his career will see him move elsewhere in the not too distant future.
They recovered well from first leg defeat to beat Nijmegen 4-1 this weekend, but their form is patchy. Losses to Utrecht at home and Feyenoord away in their last five games are hard to look beyond as they head to Old Trafford.
Match Prediction: Manchester United Win – 1.36 Paddy Power
Although last week Sir Alex Ferguson had the liberty of a free weekend after the midweek tie, this week they face a Sunday match against Norwich. That, alongside the 2-0 cushion they have, probably means the team will be a little weaker than the first leg. However, United do have a reasonably well sized squad with the return of Scholes, Cleverley, Jones and Young recently.
Ajax did show glimpses of their potential last week, and are more likely to come at this tie all guns blazing than their counterparts. With United’s weaker defence this year, including goalkeeper De Gea, they could grab a goal to make the trip a bit more interesting, but Sir Alex will not want more embarrassment in Europe.
United were clearly better last week and will have the names in their team to win this even if a few are rested. Javier Hernandez seems to be being nursed into form by the manager, coming in and out of the team with Welbeck, and looked a constant threat last week, picking up a nice goal. Back him to open the scoring here.
Highlighted Bets:-
Over/Under: Over 2.5 Goals – 1.67 Sky Bet
First Goalscorer: Hernandez – 5.00 William Hill
Correct Score: 2-1 Manchester United – 9.00 Ladbrokes
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Valencia
Valencia are a team who have a phenomenal record in Europe, they would ideally like to be in the Champions League but they will without a doubt have their eyes set on the ultimate goal which is to win the Europa League and without a doubt they have the necessary talent and form to achieve this goal.
Valencia enjoy playing good football, this season they have shown themselves to be a team capable of remaining strong in defence and very capable of catching teams out on the break. The club has a great reputation to play beautiful football and because of this, on their day Valencia can play deadly football and when need be they can easily frustrate their opposition with their possession play.
Stoke
Fans love the fact that Stoke are competing in the Europa League, for the last few seasons Stoke have showed all Premiership clubs that they are a difficult team to play against, their football style various tremendously from what other teams stick to, they don’t stick to the standard textbook but nevertheless Stoke’s style of football has been highly successful, they have managed to build a great squad and compete in any match they play against.
This season Stoke have lacked consistency, they do tend to play well in matches but then end of losing the match due to a slight lack in concentration for a few minutes. Stoke find themselves sitting in 13th in the Premiership, this is surely something they won’t be happy about, especially considering the results they were achieving before the Christmas period.
Realistically on paper critics will tend to rule out Stoke from progressing in the Europa League, but you just have to look at what Fulham did not long ago to reach the final, Stoke are more than capable of achieving good things, especially because their style of football is totally different to many clubs, especially clubs throughout Europe, consequently it may be difficult for clubs to adjust and if they don’t, Stoke could surely capitalise on this.
The last match was a tight one, Valencia played very well considering they was playing away from home and against a very physical team, nevertheless people would have expected Valencia to push on after taking the lead, but this wasn’t the case. Stoke remained disciplined however a lot of their chances came late on during the game, which was too little too late, but Stoke did show some promise and without a doubt they are still in this tie, with a bit of luck this time round, a surprise result is 100% on the cards. But it should always be remembered that Valencia are playing at home and throughout the years they are defiantly a club who has a formidable record at home in Europe, a lot of the strong English teams such as Liverpool, Chelsea and even Manchester United have struggled in Valencia, so this match should be a good one, Stoke have nothing to lose but plenty to gain.
Match Predictions:
Valencia 1 – 1 Stoke 8/1 William Hill
First goal scorer – Pablo Piatti 10/1 Coral
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Napoli form: WWLDD
It is remarkable to see Napoli sixth in the Serie A and in the last sixteen of the Champions League when you see how far they have had to come since 2004. In that year, they went bankrupt and had to be reformed under the name “Napoli Soccer” in the Italian third division. However, backed by a huge fan base they have managed to work themselves back up to the heights they were once at before and have managed to retain their old name. Since 2009, Walter Mazzarri has been the manager and he has been successful; guiding Napoli to a third place finish last season and an automatic Champions League spot. Mazzarri will be serving a touchline ban on tuesday night so he will be replaced by assistant Nicolo Frustalupi but star players Marek Hamsik, Ezequiel Lavezzi and free-scoring Edinson Cavani will all be starting. Napoli managed to progess from the “Group of Death” last round, which included Bayern Munich, Villareal and Premiership leaders Manchester City so they are a threat that Chelsea boss Andre Villas-Boas will not take lightly. They boast a strong home record, backed by a vociferous home support that will be doing all they can to create a hostile atmosphere, and have lost only six times there since September 2010.
Chelsea form: DLDDW
The Londoners are currently in terrible form, which has led to a lot of speculation surrounding the future of Andre Villas-Boas, a man who Chelsea paid £13million to prize from FC Porto last summer. Failure to see off Championship side Birmingham City at the weekend in the FA Cup will have further angered their supporters and they will be demanding a top display in Italy on tuesday night. Winning the Champions League has always been owner Roman Abramovich’s main ambition and failure to get past Napoli in the last sixteen could cause more damage to Villas-Boas’ position then their current league form. Didier Drogba looks set to replace the misfiring Fernando Torres in attack after returning from the African Cup of Nations with a runners up medal. Chelsea have been inconsistent at the best of times this season and with rumours going round of a split dressing room it will be crucial for Chelsea to do what Manchester City didn’t this season and come back from Napoli without losing.
Match Prediction: Napoli to win 2.40 – William Hill
Given both teams current state of affairs, Napoli appear to be the favourites in this one. Dressing room unrest and poor recent results mean that Chelsea head into this one low on confidence and under a lot of pressure. The home side’s Uruguayan striker Edinson Cavani has been in awesome form again this season, firing in fifteen goals in twenty-two matches and he will be a huge threat to a Chelsea defence that may be missing John Terry. Chelsea will also be relieved to have the likes of Didier Drogba back up front, and he will be a threat to a Napoli defence that has conceded just one goal in their last five games. It will be a very intimidating atmosphere at the Stadio San Paolo and Chelsea will do very well to come back without being on the end of a defeat.
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