Premiership Relegation Betting 11/12

Get ready for the might of Norwich, QPR and Swansea! Not impressed? No, these are not the usual yo-yo teams the Premiership has seen a lot lately. But the example of Blackpool, at least for half a season, suggests the gap between the Championship and Premier League is not expanding that much.

Other than the three promoted teams, there are only four teams under 5.00; Blackburn, West Brom, Wigan and Wolves. In assessing the chances the new Premiership teams have, it is prudent to see what steps the relegation threatened teams of last year have made.

Online bookmakers have introduced some special betting markets in the Premiership relegation market, including “To Finish Bottom”. This market is dominated by Hull 13/8 and Stoke 15/8. West Brom are available at best odds 7/1 to finish bottom. Not since Southampton in 04/05 has bottom position been filled by a team who wasn’t promoted the previous year.

Starting with Wolves we have a team who have acted swiftly to secure last season’s impressive loan capture Jamie O’Hara, who will continue to add guile and hard work to the midfield. His ability to deliver telling passes and the odd goal could be crucial in a team more efficient in defence than attack. Manager Mick McCarthy has built a team based on a real work ethic and defensive stability, and new £7m centre back Roger Johnson will add a touch of class to that, a man who must be on the edge of the England squad. With Kevin Doyle and Steven Fletcher both having proved themselves capable of scoring in the top league there’s no doubting McCarthy will be happy to continue his building process at the club. But can they get the big wins against Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City that were so important last season? They were down without these unexpected victories and may not get even one point against any of these teams next year. Wolves are best priced at 3.75 with Bet365.

Wigan look set to lose players again, with the star of their survival run Charles N’Zogbia being strongly chased by Aston Villa and rumours of Everton’s interest too. The attacking team that lack goals and look poor in defence, many managers have done wonders keeping the side in the division. As with every season, they look a team ready to be relegated, yet they somehow survive and they must be credited for that. There’s no doubt a bet on Wigan will give you a run for your money, but they find their fight when the going gets tough. Transfer business so far has only seen them sign Ali Al-Habsi on a permanent deal after a very impressive loan spell. Wigan are a best priced 3.00 with William Hill.

Blackburn are the most intriguing of these seven sides. No signings, players leaving and more expressing their desire to go, a rookie manager and owners who seem reluctant to sanction anything but glamour transfers. Stand out young star Phil Jones has left for Manchester United, Christopher Samba wants to join Arsenal and Jermaine Jones, who was at times fantastic in Blackburn’s midfield, has returned whence he came after his loan deal expired. A club who looked safe every year with Allardyce at the helm slipped into a relegation fight once he was sacked, and having crashed to successive defeats as new manager Steve Kean tried to get them playing prettier football, the Allardyce up and at ‘em style saved them come May. But this transfer window has only seen them go backwards so far.
Is Jason Roberts enough of a goal threat to keep them in the division? Can Paul Robinson keep looking like a man challenging for an England place? Back Blackburn at 5.00 with Coral.
The rest have shown desire to strengthen, a fear of last season’s wide open relegation battle seeing wallets spring open. Sunderland have brought in nine players, including Wes Brown and John O’Shea from Manchester United to bring defensive experience to their side. Newcastle have snapped out Demba Ba, who scored seven times in ten Premier League starts for the abysmal West Ham last season, alongside a few potentially inspired signings from France, whilst Stoke have proved themselves to be in the market after advanced talks with Carlton Cole (although the breakdown of these talks may be a blessing in disguise). All this leaves Aston Villa as the only side who have seriously weakened, whilst adding a manager relegated with Birmingham last year, but they have money to spend and have already brought in proven performer Shay Given.
And so the promoted teams may have come to the promised land in the year everyone realises they had a lucky escape last time round and must spend to escape the same situation repeating. Unfortunately, there has been no signing to inspire any confidence in their escape. Danny Graham (Swansea), Steve Morison (Norwich) and Jay Bothroyd (QPR) all played well in the Championship, but are not signings of proven quality. The big money at QPR seems not to be forthcoming, and although statistically unlikely, it seems the three sides coming up really could go straight back down.
Over the last five years the average time that newly promoted clubs spent in the Premier League was 1.9 seasons, and the last time that all three promoted clubs managed to avoid immediate relegation was 2000/01. Over the last ten years the team promoted as champions have been relegated after just one season on three occasions, the runners-up on four occasions and the play-off final winners on six occasions. Make of that what you will, but it seems likely that at least one will go.

Recommended bets:

TOP BET:-

QPR to be relegated: 2.88 Coral

Join them in doubles and a treble with:-

Swansea to be relegated: 1.57 Bet 365, Sky Bet and Coral

Blackburn to be relegated: 5.00 Coral

And an outsider for the value seekers:-
Aston Villa (IF the transfer window disappoints) to be relegated: 21.00 Coral, William Hill, Bet 365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power

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