Seen by many as the greatest player in the world right now, it is easy to see why Lionel Messi is one of the favourites to secure the Golden Boot in South Africa. The 22 year old argentine forward is available at 14/1 with Coral, surprisingly good odds considering the season he is having.
The tricky winger/striker has had his most prolific season in a Barcelona shirt. In 27 league appearances, he has managed an astounding 26 goals. His European record is similarly impressive with 8 goals in 9 appearances, including 4 against Arsenal in the 2nd leg of their quarter-final tie. He has certainly shown that on his day, he is capable of scoring multiple goals against any defence. His jinking runs and clever finishing make him the most feared forward on the planet right now.
On the international stage, things haven’t gone quite so well for Messi. Argentina stumbled through qualification and only progressed to the finals after their final group game. As a result of this poor qualification, Argentina aren’t fancied to have a long stay in this year’s competition and are tipped by many to fall at the quarter-finals. Given this, it may be hard for Messi to match the number of goals scored by for instance the Spanish forwards, who are likely to play more games. One thing in his favour however, is the quality of the opposition he will face in the group stages. He will fancy his chances of tallying up a good total of goals against the likes of Nigeria, Greece and South Korea.
Messi has 40 caps for Argentina and has managed a total of 12 goals in that time. I’m sure he will be looking to improve that goal to games ratio in South Africa and will look to bag as many goals as possible in the group stages. However, it remains to be seen whether this will be good enough to lead the goal scoring chart come the end of the tournament given Argentina’s anticipated performance.
Lionel Messi Golden Boot betting odds
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Runners up in ’74 and ’78, the World Cup trophy has thus far has eluded the Dutch so could 2010 in South Africa be their year?
The Oranje set the neutrals’ pulses racing during the group stages of Euro 2008 before eventually succumbing to the Russians in the quarter-final, and Bert Van Marwijk’s determined bunch will want to kick-off their World Cup campaign in similar fashion. The Netherlands take on Denmark in the opening game in Group E and the first all European clash of the tournament. And after notching up impressive victories in their pre World Cup warm-up games the Dutch are odds on favourites and rightly so to win this one; they can be backed at 8/13 with Boylesports.
They’re not quite the tournament favourites but they’re most certainly lurking amongst the Spanish and Brazilians somewhere, probably under the darkhorse tag. Very few might not predict it, but few would be surprised if Holland got their hands on the trophy this summer and are as short as 4/7 with SkyBet to breeze through the group stages and top Group E. Number 4 in the FIFA World rankings, the Dutch won all their qualifying games and were the first team to qualify for the finals. Well what do you expect from a team that boasts the likes of Robin Van Persie, Wesley Sneijder, Rafael van der Vaart and Arjen Robben? And although the latter hobbled off in their last friendly against Hungary, the ex-Chelsea ace is expected to feature in the latter stages of the tournament should his country get there.
While Bert Van Marwijk’s side may not strut an abundance of glittering strikers, it is the men who sit just behind them that make them one of the most technically astute European teams. Van Persie can conjure something from nothing, Robben’s pace and ability to dribble compliment Sneijder who is regarded as the diminutive playmaker. All that’s missing is a workhorse – but they certainly have one of those as well in Dirk Kuyt, the Liverpool man is not short of admirers and will be hoping to impress on the big stage.
Like me, you’re probably thinking how the Danes will nullify these multiple threats in the lunchtime kick-off in Johannesburg. Morten Olsen’s side are not at South Africa by chance though one must remember, they topped a tough qualifying group that including both Portugal and Sweden. Denmark are there on merit and will fancy their chances of progressing with Holland, they are favoured over both Japan and Cameroon who complete the group. But the bookies do not favour them in the opener against the Dutch, Victor Chandler offer a best price 6/1 to claim all three points on day four of the tournament. An interesting statistic to consider if you intend to bet on this one – Denmark have previously won three of their opening matches at the World Cup. And the form book suggests this one could be a tight knit affair, five out of the last six meetings have ended all square so the draw could be attractive at 3/1 with Bet365. The last meeting between the pair came in a 1-1 friendly draw in May 2008.
Another Arsenal striker will lead the Scandinavian attack, Nicklas Bendtner can stun the Dutch rearguard with the opener at 11/1 but preference is obviously for Robin Van Persie to break the deadlock. He will naturally be a popular First Goalscorer bet after bagging goals in all his country’s warm-up games, SkyBet offer a creditable 4/1 which looks a sound bet. If Arjen Robben fails to recover from injury in time to face the Danes, there will be a heavier reliance on Wesley Sneijder to deliver, and he is worth a punt at 15/2 to grab the opener. Stoke City’s Thomas Sorensen looks sure to be kept busy at Soccer City, he was beaten by a single Aussie strike in their last friendly which have cast a few doubts over Danish chances in South Africa.
The first half could end goalless as both teams come to grips with the occasion and the atmosphere in Johannesburg, neither side will want to give too much away early on. You can get odds of 3/1 that the first forty-five ends in a stalemate and Bert Van Marwijk’s side go on to win the second. One can’t help but feel Holland will prove too strong for Denmark and it’s difficult to see where the Danes’ goal supply will stem from. Blue Square offers a generous 6/4 that The Netherlands win to nil.
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While Holland became the first team to reach the last 16 of the 2010 World Cup; the opposite can be said of Cameroon who became the first country to tumble out of South Africa. The Africans slumped to defeat against Denmark on Friday and enter the Dutch game hoping to salvage some pride and live up to their nickname as the Indomitable Lions. The Netherlands on the other hand will want to finish with a flourish by ensuring they cement top spot in Group E but it will also give them a chance to rest some of their bigger names before the knockout stages commence.
Best odds for Holland vs Cameroon:
Holland – 5/6 Willaim Hill
Draw – 5/2 Betfred
Cameroon – 4/1 Betfred
Without really excelling in the tournament thus far, the so called ‘Flying Dutchmen’ haven’t exactly been flying in their opening two games. But all good sides are capable of winning ugly and Bert Van Marwijk’s side have done just that and one can only assume their best performances are being held in reserve for the latter rounds. Wesley Sneijder’s thumping strike was enough to see of Japan last time out and after easily dispatching of the Danes in the first game all is looking rosy in the Dutch camp. They have yet to concede and join Argentina as the only teams yet to drop any points. So expect that to continue against Cameroon where they are odds on at 5/6 with Bet365. However, perhaps better value is for the Oranje to win to nil with Paddy Power’s 21/10 – this seems extremely appealing considering their two previous shut-outs.
A draw will be enough for Holland to clinch Group E and is available at 5/2 with SkyBet. It will be surprising if they do take the field and settle for a point now their last 16 place is secure and it may be best to look elsewhere rather than taking a punt on this bet.
Paul Le Guen’s Cameroon restored some of the passion against Denmark which was evidently lacking in the opener with Japan. But this marked improvement couldn’t prevent them from crashing out of a campaign largely criticised for Le Guen’s poor tactics. The former Rangers’ boss deployed star striker Samuel Eto’o wide on the right against the Japanese and admitted his ploy to play the Inter Milan striker in this position did not work. Eto’o started as the focal point in attack against the Danes and justified his manager’s decision by grabbing the opener but they couldn’t hold on and were caught twice on the counter by the clinical Scandinavians. The highest ranked African country in the tournament did though pose more of an attacking threat and will want to continue in the same vein against the Dutch. If you fancy them to cover up some of the irreparable cracks in South Africa they can be found at a best priced 7/2 with SkyBet to go out on a high note.
The First Goalscorer bet could be a good one for the punter in this match; Robin Van Persie is about due his first of the competition and it could be the opener against Cameroon at 5/1 (William Hill) or anytime at 11/8 (Boylesports). Although coach Van Marwijk may decide to rest the Arsenal forward and that could pave the way for Klaas Jan Huntelaar to break the deadlock at 11/2 with Bet365. If some of Holland’s big-hitters do not feature, Eljero Elia could get his break after two impressive substitute appearances. The winger isn’t afraid to beat his man and hit a post against Denmark, definitely worth an outside bet to score the first at 9/1 (Betfred). For Cameroon’s main goal threat you can look no further than Samuel Eto’o at 8/1 (SkyBet) to be the first goalscorer and double his tally for the tournament. While preference is for Eto’o, why not try a small stake on Achille Emana for the first at 16/1 who might have troubled the scoring against the Danes if he hadn’t caught Thomas Sorensen in sublime form.
Both teams can set up and play without any pressure they may have endured in their two previous encounters and that can mean only one thing. Goals. Get on the even money Bet365 offer for over 2.5 goals and/or if you’re even braver over 3.5 goals pays out at a creditable 11/4 with Boylesports. If you’re still pondering over the World Cup outright market The Netherland’s are fast shrugging off their darkhorse tag and another win against Cameroon could see the 8/1 being offered by SkyBet shorten even further. And with Arjen Robben likely to make a timely return for the knockout stages this bet makes plenty of appeal.
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Group H contains the European Champions; Spain, Chile, Switzerland and Honduras. Clear favourites to top this group are Spain at 4/11 (Paddy Power). Realistically it is hard to look any further than Spain to win this group. They are possibly the best team in the world at the moment with an unbelievable amount of talent available to them. They breezed through qualification winning every single game scoring 28 goals whilst only conceding 5. The strike-force of Villa and Torres is possibly the most feared partnership in world football and together they are capable of ripping any defence to shreds. The midfield is full of creativity and endeavour making them a formidable force. Their problem in previous major tournaments has been the ability to perform on the big stage. This demon was put to bed they went on to win the 2008 European Championships. 15/8 can be found on them walking away from Group H with maximum points (SKYBET) this may well be worth a few quid.
Chile are the favourites to qualify alongside Spain at 4/6 (Totesport). Chile have failed to qualify for the previous two World Cup finals’ and this may lead people to believe that they are going to pose little threat to the more established nations in the tournament. However, this view could not be further from the truth. Chile had an excellent time in qualification, eventually finishing only 1 point behind Brazil in the South American pool. Victory over Argentina in qualification certainly showed the world that they are a very capable team and they will be a force to be reckoned with in this group.
Switzerland are the bookies tip to finish 3rd in the group. Totesport are giving them odds of 6/4 to qualify from group H. Despite winning their qualification group, they were in one of the weaker groups and are unlikely to pull-up any trees in South Africa. At the back they have former Arsenal players Senderos and Djourou who despite their relatively young ages have played together for a long time. However, both are prone to mistakes in big games and they may find keeping clean sheets difficult against the other teams in this group. 56/19 with expekt.com may be a wise bet.
Honduras complete Group H. This is only their second appearance in the World Cup finals and as a result, 11/2 (expekt.com) can be found on them progressing to the second stage. They made it to the finals on goal difference over Costa Rica in the North and Central America qualification group. Although they don’t have the greatest strength in depth, they do have some capable players in the squad with the likes of Wilson Palacios, Maynor Figueroa and David Suazo who all play in Europe. These players will be vital for Honduras if they hope to cause any upsets in this group.
Betting tips for Group H
Final order of the group as follows, Spain/Chile/Honduras/Switzerland- 21/4 (bwin.com)
Spain to finish with 9 points- 15/8 (SKYBET)
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Group G was immediately tagged with being the ‘group of death’ once the draw was complete. Containing three teams which are well fancied to go far in the competition, it is a certainty that one ‘big’ team will leave the competition at the group stage. Brazil, Portugal and the Ivory Coast will almost certainly be fighting tooth and nail to qualify from this group, with football minnows North Korea seemingly left with little chance of getting any points. Brazil are favourites with the bookies to progress from this group which is understandable given their unquestionable pedigree in the World Cup. They are available at 4/6 to win the group with SKYBET. As usual they have plenty of attacking threats at their disposal with the likes of Kaka, Robinho and Luis Fabiano. Also they have qualified from the group stages for the last five World Cups. However, they will have to try and keep it tight at the back with some very capable attack-minded teams also competing in the group.
Portugal are slight favourites over Ivory Coast to qualify at 20/23 (Totesport). Portugal, like Brazil, have lots of skilful attack-minded players, none more so than Cristiano Ronaldo. He has the ability to almost single-handedly beat any team in the world. He can score and create goals out of nothing and will certainly be one of the players to watch at this tournament. However, despite his importance to the team, Portugal are far from being solely reliant on one player. They also have the likes of Nani and Simao who are capable of similar feats. Although they have such talent in the squad, qualification was only achieved through a play-off having been beaten to top-spot in their group by Denmark. As a result, Portugal may well be the shock early-exit in the tournament. 1/1 is available on them not qualifying for the second round.
Should Portugal or Brazil slip-up at any point, the Ivory Coast will almost certainly there to take their place in progressing. 10/11 can be found on the Ivory Coast progressing to the second round. This may offer good value. The Ivory Coast’s main forward threat is that of their captain, Didier Drogba. Should he fire on all cylinders in South Africa, Ivory Coast have a massive chance of reaching the latter stages of the tournament. They have a very athletic side with players such as the Toure brothers, Emmanuel Eboue and Saloman Kalou which will test any side in the world.
The apparent no-hopers in this tough group are North Korea. Odds as large as 16/1 (bwin.com) can be found on them progressing to the second round. They are pretty much an unknown entity which may be there only advantage, it is very hard to see them picking up any points when drawn in such a difficult group.
Tips for Group G
Brazil to win the group with Ivory Coast 2nd- 9/4 (SKYBET)
North Korea to finish bottom of the group- 1/5 (expekt.com)
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IIn Group F you will find Italy, Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand. Italy, current world champions, are undoubtedly the clear favourites to progress to the second round as group leaders. Ladbrokes are offering generous odds of 1/2 on this happening. Italy were solid during the qualification campaign and maintained an unbeaten record throughout. Similarly to when they won the competition, Italy have continued to set themselves up solidly defensively and it has so far worked. However, throughout qualification there were many narrow victories over mediocre sides, when they come up against tougher teams in South Africa their real credentials will be tested. The team has got older and this could prove to be a competition too far for some of them. Despite saying this, anything other than Italy topping Group F will be a big shock.
Paraguay are fairly strong favourites to join Italy in the second round. Odds of 4/7 (SKYBET) are on offer for them to progress to the second round. Paraguay had a very strong qualification campaign finishing above football giants Argentina in the South American group as well as beating Brazil along the way. This shows that they are capable of mixing it up with the best sides in the world on their day, and they may provide a tough test for Italy in the race for top spot in the group. 4/1 (Totesport/SKYBET) for them to win the group may offer good value if Italy slip-up in any of their games.
World Cup debutants, Slovakia, are the bookies tip to finish third. William Hill are offering 6/4 on them to qualify. Slovakia finished top of a fairly tough group in qualifying which included the Czech Republic and Slovenia. They could well turn out to become the surprise package of the 2010 World Cup and certainly won’t go down without a fight. Their most recognisable player to most will be Liverpool’s Martin Skrtel, the combative central defender will certainly do his utmost to help his country progress to the next stage. As well as Skrtel, the squad contains many players that are plying their trade around the top divisions in Europe and they are unlikely to be intimidated by any opposition in this group.
New Zealand are the outsiders of this group at 16/1 to qualify with expekt.com. This is only New Zealand’s second appearance in the World Cup finals, the last being 1982. They qualified after a memorable play-off victory over Bahrain. Although New Zealand will want to progress as far as they can in the competition, they will just be happy to be there and any points may just be seen as a bonus. Many of their players are not playing in the world’s top leagues, and they may see this as an opportunity to put themselves in the shop-window which may help motivate them. As a result of these factors and the lack of depth in the squad, the chances of New Zealand progressing seem slim.
Tips for Group F
Slovakia to qualify- 6/4 (William Hill)
Italy to win the group- 1/2 (Ladbrokes)
New Zealand to finish bottom- 1/4 (expect.com)
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In Group E, the bookies seem to believe that Holland will qualify with relative ease leaving Cameroon and Denmark to fight over 2nd place, and Japan as huge outsiders. Victor Chandler are offering odds of 4/5 on Holland to qualify for the 2nd round as group leaders which seems like a fairly safe bet. Anything other than that will be a huge shock given their undoubted talents and impeccable qualification campaign. They were one of only two teams from Europe to qualify with a 100% winning record meaning they will not only be favourites to win their group, but also one of the favourites to win the whole competition. Bearing their 100% qualification record, a good bet could be on them maintaining that run and winning every game in the group stages of the finals, this is available at 17/4 (expect.com).
The battle for 2nd spot in this group is a very tough one to call. Both teams can be found at 6/5 to qualify meaning that some bookies are having difficulties trying to split the two sides. Denmark did remarkably well to qualify automatically from such a tough qualification group which included Portugal and intense rivals Sweden. The most impressive result perhaps being a 3-2 win in Portugal. The current squad has a nice blend of youth and experience within it. Thomas Sorensen and Jon Dahl Tomasson have close to 200 caps between them, and this experience combined with some talented younger players such as Daniel Agger and Nicklas Bendter will make Denmark a competitive side in South Africa.
Cameroon qualified for the world cup fairly comfortably and will be particularly delighted to be there given it’s taking place in Africa. This may be a slight advantage to them over their main group rivals Denmark as they will be more familiar with the climate, pitches etc. Similarly to Denmark, Cameroons squad contains a mixture of experience and youth. Samuel Eto’o will always pose a goal threat upfront and will have to be marshalled well by any defence to keep him quiet. Although Cameroon have failed to progress to the second round since 1990, the advantage they may gain from knowing the environment may just give them the edge over Denmark and 6/5 (BETFRED) may prove good value.
The underdogs in group E are certainly Japan. Although they qualified fairly convincingly, they will face much better teams in this group than they did in qualification. Odds of 56/19 (expect.com) may be tempting to some; however their chances of qualification are very slim indeed. They may have the ability to cause one shock but their squad is likely to be too weak to pose any real threat to the other teams in terms of qualification.
Tips for Group E
Holland to qualify with maximum points- 17/4 (expect.com)
Holland to win the group with Cameroon 2nd- 3/1 (SKYBET)
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Group D is certainly one of the harder groups to call with each team having a very realistic chance of qualification. Germany, Serbia, Ghana and Australia all have good players and are capable of beating each other on their day. Despite it being a tight group, Germany have been made favourites to win the group at 10/11 (Victor Chandler) and can be found at 1/5 (BlueSq) simply to qualify. Although the current German side may not be as intimidating as previous generations, they always seem to perform at the major tournaments and manage to grind out the results when needed. They have progressed to at least the quarter-final stage in the previous five world cups and look capable of doing the same again. They had a fairly comfortable route to the finals which included beating the Russians both home and away and should they continue their consistent form, qualification should be achievable.
Slight favourites to qualify along with Germany are fellow Europeans, Serbia, at 5/4 (Victor Chandler). Serbia have been in great form during qualification, only losing 1 game, despite a fairly tough group. They have a very physical side and will prove a tough test for any team in South Africa, and 6ft8 Valencia striker Nikola Zigic will be an intimidating prospect for any defender. They also have Man Utd centre-back Nemanja Vidic marshalling the defence so are likely to be a well-organised unit. Given this 5/4 may offer good value.
The African representative in group D are the ‘Black Stars’, Ghana. They are another team who had a fantastic qualification campaign and subsequently reached the African Cup of Nations’ final. Confidence will certainly be high in the Ghana camp and they will fancy their chances of qualification to the second round. Serbian manager Milovan Rajevac will also have the added incentive of overcoming his home country in their game. Ghana’s chances however may be heavily dependant on the form of star midfielder, Michael Essien. His drive and ability certainly has a massive influence on how they play, should he suffer any injuries before or during the tournament, Ghana’s chances of qualification may well be significantly reduced.
Australia are the bookmakers outsiders for this group at 5/2 (SKYBET) to qualify. They also had a very solid qualification campaign all be it in a slightly easier region. One statistic of note is that they managed to keep 10 clean sheets out of 14 games showing they may well prove a tough-nut to crack. This coupled with attacking threats, especially off set-pieces, with players such as Tim Cahill and Harry Kewell may give Australia a chance of qualifying from this well-matched group.
Germany to win the group with Ghana 2nd- 18/5 (expekt.com)
Germany to win the group with Serbia 2nd- 14/5 (expect.com)
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England, USA, Slovenia and Algeria make up Group C. England are the clear favourites to win this group with the best odds around being 4/11 available with Skybet and Paddy Power. England’s qualification into the world cup finals was almost perfect winning every game until defeat in Ukraine after they had already qualified. This incredible winning run included a memorable 4-1 victory away to Croatia. Fabio Capello has certainly instilled a winning mentality into this talented group of players. England have the ability to beat anyone on their day, and with players such as Rooney and Gerrard, England should have the ability to break down even the most stubborn defences eventually. A good bet may therefore on England to pick up maximum points at 2/1 (bwin.com).
The bookies strongly expect the USA to be the team to qualify alongside England with 7/10 (bwin.com) offered on them finishing either 1st or 2nd. They also had a fairly comfortable qualifying campaign and always looked like qualifying. They have qualified from the group stage at the last 2 World Cup finals’ and therefore clearly have the capability to do so again. They have some good players such as Tim Howard and Landon Donovan, however, given the quality England have and it looks likely that they will qualify in 2nd place.
Slovenia are certainly outsiders to qualify compared to England and USA. This is only their 3rd major international finals and they are yet to win a game in such a tournament so their ambitions are likely to be fairly low. Bwin.com are offering 9/4 on them qualifying from group C which doesn’t seem great value considering their previous experience in major tournaments. On the other hand, they did manage to beat a very capable Russia side over 2 legs in a play-off to qualify and they can be a tough team to break down, however the quality of England and USA should be too much over the duration of the group.
Algeria, the final team in group C also look like no hopers in this group. 4/1 is being offered on their progression to the next round by the majority of bookmakers. Although Algeria had a decent qualification campaign, including a surprise victory against African Cup of Nations champions, Egypt. They will surely struggle against the likes of England and USA though. Few of their players have played at the top level and they may suffer from inexperience against top teams. Nadil Belhadj (Portsmouth) and Madjid Bougherra (Rangers) will have to try and share their experience amongst the rest of the squad. A good bet regarding Algeria could be on them getting fewer than 2.5 points at 20/19 with expekt.com.
England to top the group with USA 2nd- 11/8 (SKYBET)
England to finish on maximum points- 2/1 (bwin.com)
Algeria to finish on fewer than 2.5 points- 20/19 (expekt.com)
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Group B contains Nigeria, South Korea, Greece and hotly tipped Argentina. Argentina are clear favourites to win this group with 8/15 being the best price with Bet365. Although people say there are no givens in international football, surely Argentina will finish at the top of this group? They have a plethora of international superstars available to them such as Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero and Javier Mascherano to name but a few. However, despite the talent available to Maradonna, Argentina only just scraped through South American qualification winning only 8 of their 18 games. This poor qualification included a humiliating 6-1 defeat at the hands of Bolivia. The pressure is certainly going to be on Maradonna given this relatively poor qualification, as well as Argentina’s recent underwhelming World Cup campaigns. Argentina have not progressed past the quarter-final stage since 1990. Despite this, should they play anywhere near what they are capable of; they should qualify with ease at the top of the group.
The team expected to qualify along with Argentina are the African representatives, Nigeria. In the past, Nigeria have shown that they are definitely capable of shocking supposed bigger sides, particularly in the group stages. This year, the ‘Super Eagles’ could offer more of the same given the physicality and ability within the side. Nigeria have a few players, who on their day, are capable of getting a goal out of very little. Obafemi Martins (formerly of Newcastle) and Everton star Yakubu have both proven they can perform against top teams in the Premier League. As well as this attacking threat they have solid defensive minded players such as John Obi Mikel and Joseph Yobo who could make them difficult to break down. Odds of 5/1 are available on them to win the group, but with the threat of Argentina, the smarter bet might be on them to qualify in second place, behind Argentina at 5/2 with SKYBET.
Shock 2004 European Championship winners, Greece, are the third favourites with the majority of bookies. They are available at 13/10 (Paddy Power) to qualify in either 1st or 2nd. They qualified for the finals after coming 2nd in what was one of the easier European qualifying groups and beating Ukraine 1-0 on aggregate in the play-off. This is only their 2nd appearance in the world cup finals and they may suffer from inexperience as a result. However, 2004 was only their 2nd appearance in the European Championship finals, could a highly unlikely lightning bolt strike twice? They also have a squad with plenty of Champions League experience which could help them.
South Korea complete group B. The 2002 hosts and semi-finalists had a fairly decent qualifying campaign, however in order to progress to the 2nd round of the finals they will have to beat much better opponents than they did in qualifying. The current best price on the qualifying from the group is 7/2 with SKYBET. They don’t lack experience in the competition though having qualified for the previous 7 world cup finals’. They also have some decent footballers such as Man UTD attacker Park Ji-Sung.
Tips for Group B
Argentina to finish 1st and Nigeria to finish 2nd- 5/2 (SKYBET)
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